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  • Type:
  • Created On:
    09/07/2011 9:56 PM
  • Last Update:
    05/09/2024 7:02 PM

NBA "TRUE STEAM" for FRI 12-18-09

Allright fellas...I think it's time that we start trying to pick off some "True Steam" in NBA & NCAABB...And take a closer look at some of the "early moves" throughout the week...

I plan on publishing this Blog on a Daily basis...Monday thru Friday...And passing on the Weekend because there is just too much work that needs to be done early on Sat & Sun...

As the season progresses, and especially when football comes to an end...we will begin seeing a lot more "early moves"...Because the books will show more "balls" (for lack of a better word)...and begin offering lines for much more games early...As well as increase the amount that they are willing to book on those opening numbers...Because they know that they have the Betting Public to fall back on, to turn a profit...

Since Friday is the biggest day for NBA...I thought that we would kick it off with an NBA Bet...

And as we move forward and I see that the Outfits have kicked it up a notch...I am hoping that we are able to once again isolate a Best Bet...

So without further delay...let's see if we can start off with a winner...VR


NBA "TRUE STEAM" for Friday 12-18-09 :


1.) MEMPHIS opened -4.5....Now -6

This is a very big move and extremely significant because with 2 ESPN Games...and a handful of good match-ups, this game will receive very little "volume"...And if I know this, it's obvious that the books do as well...Which is why as soon as the Wiseguys went to work laying the number with Memphis...the books had no problems adjusting...

What stuck out to me the most was that the books wouldn't put a line up on this game until very early this morning...And as soon as they did, we saw that the Wiseguys immediately felt that the line was too low...More importantly, after the first Syndicate or two bet it when the line first went up...forcing the move from -4.5 to -5...we then saw a few more come in about an hour later and lay -5...Which tells me that there are a handful of Wiseguys who all agree that the number was too low...

The books didn't take any more chances this time...and went to -6 right away...

Now don't be surprised if this line takes a dip before game-time...Especially if between now and then, this line climbs a bit more...

Because I know from experience that plenty of these Outfits will take the opportunity to limit liability, while possibly setting up a "middle"...By coming back and taking the points for a small amount before tip-off...Which will then force a late adjustment...VR


LINE PREDICTION : I would be surprised to see this line get any higher, because I know for sure that the Outfits were able to take a substantial "position" already...And I think that if they wanted a bigger one, they would have done so...Because this isn't a game that will get "volume", like we touched on above...Which means that they can't count on the betting public's money to help them get a better line than where it is right now...And because of that, I wouldn't be surprised as I stated see this one drop a little...If you agree with the Wiseguys, you may want to sit back and wait for a possible drop...But if you disagree, then I would go ahead and grab the points now because you probably won't get much better...VR

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