Last night we all got to see just how much public perception actually influences the betting market...and how big of a role it has on the prices for marquee match-ups. When we stop and take a look back at the beginning of this series, it becomes extremely evident of how the oddsmakers are willing to put their actual ratings aside for the chance to beat the public out of their money, while trying to hold the wise-guys off from finding value. There is no better example of this, than when the Series Price was sent out...
The Celtics had the home-court edge for these Finals, as well as the best record in the NBA...while also dismantling the Lakers on 2 occassions early on in the season...but still, based on such a strong public perception of the Lakers....Boston was installed as a +160 dog to bring home the title. That alone, I believe gave Laker backers even more confidence that their perceptions were correct...I mean, even the oddsmakers agree, right ??
Well, those of us in this business long enough, who have the ability to create strong numbers know that it just wasn't the case at all. When these playoffs began, the oddsmakers ratings all showed Boston to be the best team in the NBA...but after having a tougher time of it in the first 3 rounds of the playoffs, coupled with the Lakers easy run through the west...and all of a sudden, they were forced to put their actual ratings aside and take public perception into consideration....a sure sign of how much confidence the oddsmakers have in the recreational bettors inability to put their personal feelings aside, and approach sports betting as a science, rather than a gamble...
What followed was both a stroke of genius on their part, but at the same time...a disappointment. The reason for this is simple...this match-up was being billed as the best NBA Finals in a very long time, and the NBA and its fans were getting the marquee match-up that everyone had hoped for...but like most over-hyped events, they rarely live up to their expectations...and that is exactly what happened this time around...
When Boston covered the first 2 games at home, there was still a lot of excitement based on how the Lakers came back at the end of Game 2...so heading back to LA, we were expected to see it turn into a hard fought series...and once again, the oddsmakers were forced to put their ratings aside, and more importantly...the strong numbers that showed historically...the Lakers were in trouble...lets not forget that even up 2-0, the adjusted series price wasn't even close to what the "true" odds showed it should have been...and it was at this point, Game 3...that I feel the oddsmakers allowed what would have potentially been one of the biggest handles of all time...into a series that many began hoping would just end...
The oddsmakers came out and made the Lakers a 9pt Favorite and that was the beginning of the end....There is absolutely no way that any serious and successful handicapper could have justified making the Lakers higher than 6pt Favs...and in fact, I truely felt that it should have been closer to 4 based on the series price and even with the "must win" situation, I figured they should have went as high as -6...well we all know how it turned out...Lakers win, Boston covers...and the frustration for bettors begins to mount...
So on to Gm4...and this time they bring out the Lakers at -8 and bad news for the NBA, the books, and the fans...as the Celtics go on to win the game on the ML and more or less...win the series right then and there. That was when I began hearing the word "conspiracy" and bettors saying how they are done with the NBA for '08...and living here in Vegas, I can tell you first hand that immediately all of the hype and excitement surrounding these Finals had all but disappeared....It now became a Final, surrounded by negative reactions and when the Lakers went on to Win Gm5...but once again fail to cover...it seemed like it was all a big joke, and the bettors weren't allowed in on it until the very end...but by then, too many had tried "chasing" with LA and were in no laughing mood...
Finally, last night put the excamation point on everything that I just stated...and the 30+ point blow-out was the perfect ending and the perfect example of just how much "public perception" plays a role in this market. As I went by the books early this morning to cash my series tickets, I asked some of the books how they fared in the Finals...and they all said the same thing...that it was a disappointment because they were expecting such a bigger handle and instead of itr increasing as interest grows and the Finals moved on...the exact opposite happened, with many bettors even refusing to take part...
So what do you think about these Finals...were they a disappointment to you...and do you feel that the oddsmakers did the right things throughout the series, or were there instances that they could have kept our attention and excitement to where it was prior to the opening game...did you enjoy betting these Finals ??? I am really interested to see the results, once they make them public here in Vegas...I am really interested to see what % of the handle they were able to keep, as well as what that handle actually was...truthfully, even though I had Boston for the Series...it just wasn't what I had hoped for and even though my numbers told me Boston was the better team...I really believe that the oddsmakers could have done a lot more throughout...I mean, does anyone think that one team covering ALL 6 games is good for gaming ??
Best of Luck, Vegas-Runner...