Well, since returning to Las Vegas it has become clear that the sportsbooks and the city is getting ready for the upcoming football season. Now is the time for us sports bettors to do the same as we get ready for the most exciting time of the year. Throughout the season, I intend on covering many topics and passing along many of the techniques that I use which were taught to me and have really helped me become a more efficient handicapper and professional sports bettor...and I can't stress enough, just how different the 2 actually are.
To be a professional sports bettor, you only need bankroll, money management, and solid sources of information...and the more of each that you have, the better your success should be. But today, I want to cover something that has to do with handicapping and for myself...that means being able to gather the correct information and then being able to analyze it and determine if your findings offer an edge, compared to the price the sportsbooks are using.
Early on in the season, the key to coming out of the gate quickly will all come down to preparation. So the more prepared you find yourself, the more prepared you will be to locate those edges. For myself, it almost becomes a race to see who can strengthen their numbers more accurately and quicker. As a pro handicapper and pro bettor, I will always have an edge over the sportsbooks because my success depends on me being able to win more games than I lose, while employing proper money management...while their success is determined by being able to increase their profit margin on their total handle. So that means many times, it is in their best interest to offer a weak number based soley on public perception, rather than actual strength...and by being prepared, we are able to come in and take advantage.
But to be able to do that, you need to be prepared. And early on in the season...there is nothing that we hear more about than "RETURNING STARTERS" in the NCAA...and here is where you will be able to gain a huge edge over the oddsmakers, and later the books...because you will be placing your bet, knowing what the situation truely is...and more importantly...you will be able to "Reason" at a higher level because of the simple fact that you will actually know if the price being offered is based on actual strength, or public perception...and that makes putting the pieces together and truely understanding the sportsbooks position so much clearer....Let me explain...
For the past 10+ days, almost every night even while I was away...as a team we have been breaking up every college football team...trying to come up with their offensive and defensive power ratings...for the purpose of creating a strong number to compare the actual line to. Now to do this, I was taught a handful of different systems and through the years have been able to create my own based on that foundation. Well, it wasn't until maybe the 3rd year that we went off on our own, with the plan of using our experience and sources to beat the books by betting...that I came across a concept that changed the way we guage experience...And since then, we have improved tremendously at having the ability to create a strong number even before getting a chance to have a couple of results for each team...included in the mix.
Here is what I realized, and by utilizing this...you will be able to take advantage of those times...that the perception is way off...and almost completely based on "PERCEIVED EXPERIENCE"...The first thing that most cappers look at early in the season when capping an NCAAFB Match-up is "Returning Starters"...and they either look in a magazine or web-site...that usally reads "7 Returning Starters on Off", "3 Returning Starters on Def"...and that is where it ends. Truth is, that should be where it begins...because the edge that I am speaking about has to do with what those stats don't tell you...And that is about the 4 guys on offense, and 8 guys on defense who aren't accounted for. What we had begun doing was looking at those players who aren't labled "Returning Starters" and determing actual experience.
You see, we began forming a cut-off point for experience...Meaning we would give 1pt for 10-20 Tackles and 2pts for 21-40 Tackles...and we began doing the same thing with each position...We would give a numerical value to RB for # of Carries/Yards...and did that for every position. As we began to get more polished at it and strengthening our criteria for points...it became so clear that there were so many players who had actual "Starter Experience" but instead were used primarily off the bench. And we began to see that there were certain match-ups where the number offered was so off, simply because what was being passed off as "Returning Starters"...was so far from the actual circumstances.
I couldn't believe the amount of teams who were perceived as Young, that really weren't...and you can just imagine how much of an advantage you can find when you know something which may not been factored into the line. Now I am not saying that the oddsmakers are not aware of this. And I would bet that they take everything that I just wrote into account. And that is just fine....because what we are looking for are those spots where Both, the oddsmaker and ourselves know the "True Situation"...but based on Public Perception, they have no choice but to send out a very exploitable and inaccurate Price...Remember, this all goes back to what I mentioned above...The oddsmakers are put in positions many times where the best way to protect their clients (The Books), is to send out a "weak" number...and that is where you are able to sweep in and grab some winners because you were more prepared.
In closing, like I said...along the way you will be able to pick up certain systems and then re-design them and make them your own...like I have done through the years. And although there are many possible ways to account for the "Experience" that I am refering to...the key to success is that you Account for them. Always look a little deeper than the obvious and use what is overlooked to your advantage. Because in the end...that is what "Steam" actually is. It is a selection which comes from an outfit/pro bettor who has proven to be able to win more than he loses...therefore it's in the best interest of the books to allow this "selection" to set their price more accurately for them...And early on, by doing this exercise to prepare for the season...you will notice that so much of what is being "Steamed" is because of the exact info you were able to uncover..."EXPERIENCE", the most important factor that the public looks at during the first 2-3 weeks of a season.
So this year, when you break down the match-up and look at what both teams are returning...make sure to account for what isn't mentioned...and factor in all real Game-Time Experience..and you will begin to see so many opportunities to Profit because you came Prepared and were willing to do the work that it truely takes to beat this market. This may sound like a lot of work, but after you get a feel for the guidelines and criteria for experience it will become second nature as soon as you start to look at a team. The oddsmakers are working around the clock to try and bring out prices that will entice the bettors to take the worst of it. You can make sure that isn't the case, but you have to be willing to put in the work because this is a very difficult market to beat. The sportsbooks depend on the public looking at this as a form of gambling because that will make the bettor feel their destiny is up to luck and therefore money management and the ability to handicapp won't do much to change the odds. But I am here to tell you that nothing is further from the truth...in fact, they show us that this market is beatable each and every time they rush to move a line. That tells me that they are willing to admit they are wrong and that the price set was off. Go ahead and account for EXPERIENCE the correct way this season...and you will find them to be wrong even moreso... use that knowledge to locate the "Public Perception" games and go ahead and bury them early....Thanks again for your support and Best of Luck this Upcoming Football Season...Vegas-Runner...