Allright, it's that time of the year when we try to take a look into the future and see if we can set ourselves up for a future return...And although the overall goal is to cash the Future Bet, there are also opportunities to earn and turn a profit even if that doesn't happen...Last year we were able to cash our Super Bowl Future on the STEELERS (+1300)...and also had the EAGLES (+1500) in the NFC, who got to the Championship Game...And just weeks prior, we Cashed our NCAAFB Future on FLORIDA (+500)...So, you can see why I always make sure to put some units in play on Future Bets...
Before I get to the Bet, as well as some of the reasoning that went into it...let me just say that when it comes to Futures, you have to "Shop" for the best price...Because books will vary based on the wagers they have taken, and the liability they have on a particular team...And for our AFC Super Bowl Future Bet, I was able to get +1000 rather easily...and you should as well...In fact, for those who are in the NE part of the country, where the Steelers & Patriots are getting most of the Future Book action...you could even get better...Even being in close proximity to California, I was still able to get the price I had hoped for...Without further delay, let's get to the bottom line...
TO WIN 2009 SUPER BOWL = SAN DIEGO CHARGERS +1000 (5*)
The 5 Units that I placed on this Bet is the Biggest Wager I make...Now here's why...
The Chargers were a disappointing 8-8 on '08 after coming off an 11-5 & 14-2 Season...And the reason for that was mainly due to the defense, who allowed over 20 Pts per game on average...for the 1st time since the 2003 season...The defense had to deal with plenty of injuries last year...None more key than that of Merriman...Teams were able to move the ball on SD, and they went from forcing 5.12 punts per game, to only 3.19...And they dropped to 25th in the NFL in Yards Allowed...
Even the Offense was not able to duplicate the success of the previous few seasons...and no stat shows this decline more than the fact they only rushed for 107yrds per game...When over the 5 previous seasons, they averaged 127, 161, 129, 136, & 134...That put a lot more pressure on Rivers, and although the passing game averaged their most yards per game, of the L/5 seasons...they just didn't have that deadly balance they had in prior seasons...
The offense was able to put more points on the board, but without that stingy defense...many times it just wasn't enough...And another important and telling stat was the clock...Because for 4 straight years they kept the ball for longer than their opponents, but last season, that changed as their T.O.P. dropped to 28min per game...
Also in 4 of the previous 5 seasons, SD had won "7" or more games at home...while last year they only went 5-3...And I expect that with the NFL's "30th" Toughest Schedule this season...that should definitely improve...More importantly, this team is in the AFC West...and from the work I've done on the other 3 teams, it would be a surprise if they didn't go a perfect 6-0 in the division...As they should find themselves Favored in all 6 games vs those opponents...
Let's not forget, even with so many injuries and problems...this team not only won their final 4 games to make the Playoffs...and even went on to upset the Colts...That shows me just how talented this team actually is...and with LT back and healthy...Rivers with a new contract...and the defense in tact, I expect a huge improvement on their record...
The reason I mention that is because I feel they will be able to have a good enough record, that they will ultimately get Home Field throughout the Playoffs...Which will allow them to avoid traveling to the east coast in January, when the weather is a huge edge for those teams...And lets not forget, they had some close loses last year...and historically, good teams are able to come back the following year and really improve their overall record...
Finally, I really see no reason that this team won't be able to win "13" games this season, at least...if able to stay healthy...And I expect them to have just as good, if not a better offense this season...While the defense should return to '07 form, when they were Ranked "5th" in the league in total defense...
Bottom Line...this team is LOADED on Both sides of the ball...They have an excellent special teams, and they definitely are coming in with high expectations and have everything in place to reach them...The schedule and the division, both favors them...and I see no reason why, if they stay healthy, that this isn't the best team in the NFL this season...
Now I know there are the Norv Turner questions...and I will not sit here and try to convince you that he is as good a coach as Tomlin or Belichick...But he really isn't as bad as many make him out to be, and he has shown the ability to win football games...
In closing, if this team is able to get to the Playoffs...which I think is almost automatic in the AFC West, we will have "50 UNITS" to work with...And if they are able to either secure home-field or even get a bye, the 1st week of the playoffs...then we have 2 games to win to get to the big one...And 50 Units to manuever around and look for ways to earn, even before that happens...
I really think this bet makes plenty of sense, and that we will be able to turn a profit by locking up 5 Units now...Let's face it, I know that a lot of guys don't like to tie up their money for a few months...but it's not as if we won't need cash in January...And by getting down on SAN DIEGO now, to Win the Super Bowl...that's exactly what we are going to be able to do...
Best of Luck to an Enjoyable & Profitable NFL Season...Next Week, I'll be releasing my NFC FUTURE BET OF THE YEAR...Vegas-Runner