By Tony George
It seems like a month or two ago we finished off another winning season in MLB and a killer 11-4 post season, and now the new season is here and kicking off April 4th. Ther are a few things that temper my excitiement, because I love capping baseball, so I will lay out my startegy for MLB, and the reason why my kick off is slower than others for the season.
Why Wait 3 to 4 Weeks to start posting plays?
First of all as a capper of 18 years, I am in this deal to win money, NOT sell plays. Now many cappers here and elsewhere feel different and star hammering out plays from day, but that is not my style. Every year there are the same faces in different places on piotching staffs and bullpens. I like those pitching rotations to run through 3 or 4 times and the bullpens to put up some numbers to work off of before I feel comfortable posting up plays. Same thing with new htting rotations, I like to get a feel for production and synergies on the offense before I post up plays. Again, this is just how I roll in bases.
Why singled out best bets instead of 3 game cards, especially when you are hot?
Less is more, especially in moneyline wagering. In daily sports like NCAA Hoops, NBA and MLB, we are betting anywhere from 7 to 10 plays a week, PLENTY of opportunity to make money. The way I handicap bases limits my choices because I do not spread it around and reach on large favs or run line plays. Again, it is about units gained, and many times I can get as many units to the positive with 7-10 plays as guys who post out 20 plays a week and takes more chances. I am simply reducing your downside. EXAMPLE- Last year in the post season I put up 15 plays, including the World series. I won a 2 unit Top Play twice, hit my playoff game of the year and won 4 underdogs. I took some heat for not having more plays, I would rather have more money in my pocket than a high volume of plays.
NEVER LAY more than -150
Many cappers you see on monitoring services post 300-500 games a year winning just 30-40 games over .500 in the process. It amazes me poeple invest in these guys because NO novice or inexpereinced gambler can shoulder 200+ losses, without losing their rear end. I NEVER lay more than -150, which limits my choices. I will reduce odds by a run line bet from time to time if I really think Team A can blowout Team B. I play short favs and small underdogs and totals. It reduces your downside and limits your betting from being over -110 to -135 very often. Anyone can beat anyone, and it takes about 3 or 4, -250 bets to fail and you are in serious tail chasing mode. Laying huge numbers to get wins with teams like the Yankees playing Pittsburgh at home may look like layup type wins and you are willing to stretch it out, but when you lose them it takes lots of wins to get even. I would rather make money with my system of wagering the moneyline versus taking large chances.
What Do you handicap?
Not giving away the farm here in terms of my approach, but the obvious is starting pitching and bullpens. I also stress slugging percentage and on base percentage and look at the WHIP as much as the ERA with starters. I also like recent trends or the RIGHT HERE, RIGHT NOW approach. While season long stats work OK, once the season is well underway teams go through cycles and I like to look at the last 5 to 10 games to get some insight with batting averages, bullpens ERA's and ect.
The bottom line
It is all about making the right choices and being conservative especially in the early season and in Interleague play. To me that limits the board because I am looking at teams at +120 or undervalued favs in the -130 category daily. I do not care to look at heavy favs unless the stars line up and I can get reduced odds on the runline at -1.5 runs. A rarely take dogs on the moneyline. My approach is simple, effective and maximizes profits and minimizes losses. It may be boring and straightforward, but 5 winning seasons in a row is hard to argue with. Use your head, stay away from heavy favs, and look for value in short favs and underdogs and play lots of totals at -110. Your bankroll will thank you and your moneyline wagering experience will be better and profitable this season.