The following article is from Stan Sharp as told to (and
posted by) a Pregame.com staff writer. We have convinced Stan to sit
for an occassional interview that we'd convert into an article.
Stan Sharp - A View from the Las Vegas Strip
The talk around town is how can the Books adjust the lines on these big NFL favorites to stop the one sided action from the average bettor. The general public naturally likes to bet favorites and the Big Favorites (-10 or more) are winning at an alarming rate.
Big Favorites generally don't due well ATS in the NFL but there is such a disparity between the good and bad teams in the NFL that the average bettor is winning by just betting the so called mismatches.
Thru 5 Weeks the Big Favorites in the NFL are 9-4 ATS but note of the 4 losses 2 were the first week on Monday Night Football. If you throw out those 2 Prime Time games the favorite is 9-2 ATS.
Teaser Bettors are enjoying even more success as 2 of the 4 losses ATS would have been good on Teaser Bets. Making Teasing Big Favorites in the NFL 11-2 ATS.
Stan cautions that this isn't normal and that in the coming weeks this trend will reverse itself and here's why. Vegas will continue to adjust the line trying to balance the books and that means the number you have to lay with the favorites will be more giving the big dog in the coming weeks added value.
Also as we get deeper in the season these Big Favorites will start to look past some of these bad teams as they look ahead to bigger games and key players start to take care of themselves as they get some minor in season injuries that will cause them not to play at 100% every week. So what better team to play at 80% intensity than a big Underdog team knowing that you can beat by just going thru the motions. This is where the Wise Guys here in town will start picking off some of these over inflated favorites by betting the Dogs and cash winning tickets going against the early season trends.
Just letting you know how professional bettors think as they are always looking for that edge over the oddsmaker.
Stan Sharp is a Professional Bettor in Las Vegas that has won 57.6% of his plays over a 30+ month period.
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