Welcome to “Monday Night Mania”. Each week in the NFL season I will be breaking down the NFL highlight game of the week. Monday Night is the most coveted game in the betting industry, and I will be bringing it to you every week of the NFL season right here at Pregame.com absolutely free. You can also stop by my College Football Blog and check out “Thursday Throwdown” every week of the season.
Now the CFB Blog has been downright sloppy starting the season with these free selections going 0-4. However, I am in the midst of a sweet little 6-0 run since Saturday and tonight in the early Monday Night match-up I have my top selection in the NFL going in the early Monday Night Game. You can check that out in my standard thread as I work toward 7 straight rated plays. In addition to that top selection of the week you get this free Side and Total.
San Diego –vs- Kansas City (4.5 / 44.5): Betting on road teams in the NFL has always been risky business, not that they don’t win, it’s just a daunting task to find the needle. Monday Night Football over the past twenty years has been no different as the numbers indicate. In the 337 Regular Season Monday Night games, dating back to 1990, if you were a home team bettor you’d be down money; home teams are only (164-167-5, 49.55%, -19.7 Units) ATS on Monday Night Football over the past twenty years.
The old rumor used to say “bet on home dogs on Monday Night football blind”. Well that as well has been a losing prospect and is a misconception. Out of those 337 games 100 of them were home underdogs; the dog won only 46 times (46-54, 46%, -13.4Units). My point is you can’t bet and make money on a basic premise, as they lead to many losses. At some point the house will trend back toward the median and you’ll end up on the wrong side more times than not.
Tonight from Kansas City the Chiefs get division rival San Diego in this classic western division matchup. The Chiefs haven’t seen a week 1 home game since 2006 and look to put the pressure on Phillips Rivers and the Bolts under the guidance of Romeo Crennel. Last Season San Diego themselves instituted the 3-4 and it took several weeks for this defense to gel, we’ll see how this defense of the Chiefs that ranked 28th overall in points allowed will respond to Crennel. Right now the landscape in Kansas City has a familiar Bostonian atmosphere.
This line tonight opened up at (5.5 and 45). The public has been betting on San Diego, yet the line is moving south. Now that as well is no real premise to bet alone, but is worth noting. The Chiefs have lost three straight at home to the Chargers and will be looking to avenge a week 7 drubbing last year to the tune of 37-7. In that game Rivers threw for 268 yds and 3 td’s, while Cassel surrendered 3 int’s and was a miserable 10 of 25 for fewer than 100yds. One thing the Chiefs have made some improvement on in the off-season was in their secondary, and they’ll need to make some major improvements if they intend to stop this aerial attack even without Vincent Jackson in camp.
The Chargers are faced with life after Ladainian Tomlinson, and have quit a weapon that can be the future in Southern California with Ryan Matthews. This Charger team is looking to repeat in the West for the fifth consecutive season, but the problem for San Diego last season was early in the year due to mixing things up on defense, but they settled in and were atm machines covering 7 of the last 11 in the regular season. I don’t see anything slowing this team down again this year and should easily breeze through the West, but I do see some problems tonight in this hostile home environment.
If the Chiefs look to have any possible opportunity to disrupt this high powered offense they’ll need to get some pressure on Phillip Rivers. The Chiefs have been one of the worst pass rushing teams in the NFL over the past two seasons totaling only 32 combined sacks and at the bottom of the chart. Well my opinion is that tonight that will change, as they get into some special blitz packages and they’ll have a better chance of keeping this offense off the field with a solid rushing performance out of Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles and keep it close enough to get the cover at home.
Weather Report: There will be a very slight chance for scattered thunderstorms throughout the greater Kansas City area tonight. Temperatures should be in the low 70’s to Upper 60’s during game time with very humid conditions reaching mid 70%.
My recommended play for tonight is on the Under (44.5) and Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5) keeping it close and getting the back door. Prediction-San Diego 24 Kansas City 20.