There is an art to picking an upset and boxing is one of the easiest sports to spot one when it is coming. That is why I was able to pick the two biggest boxing upsets of 2008.
Antonio Margarito over Miguel Cotto
Manny Pacquiao over Oscar De La Hoya
Now I am about to pick the 1st major upset of 2009 (sorry Arizona fans you may or may not get a surprise next week with my Super Bowl pick) and it is so easy to see you should be taking your entire paycheck, your tax refund (don't front you do rapid refund), your baby momma tax refund check or whatever money you won on my 2-0 NFL Championship weekend picks and put it on:
<b>SHANE MOSLEY BEATING ANTONIO MARGARITO</b>
You are probably thinking to yourself:
<i>"But BonaFide one Cotto beat Mosley and Magarito beat Cotto so this is an easy win for Margarito right?"</i>
My friend that is why I am paid 25c an hour to run this site because sometimes you have to look beyond the obvious.
When predicting an upset you have to look at three key factors:............
3- Gut feeling
I have it on good authority that Margarito after beating Cotto got a taste of "Being the Man" and liked it and liked it a lot. Some fighters can handle that mantle of "Being the Man" and still fight at an elite level (see: Mayweather, Floyd) others once they get a taste of being the "King" lose their desire to defend the throne.
Margarito's motivation for his entire career was being the boxer
nobody wanted to give a chance to. He built a reputation on being the
most "ducked" fighter, but ironically after he beat Cotto he started to
duck fighters (see: Williams, Paul). He even had to be prodded into taking the fight with Mosley.
I equate boxers to successful rappers. It is easy to talk about the
streets and how hard you had it when you are coming up, but it is hard
to rap about the streets when you live in a ten million dollar home and
drive a car that cost more than the average income of a married couple.
Same thing with boxers once Margarito "made it" I don't see the same fire and I don't see the same desire which in turn makes him prime for an upset.
Mosley is an older more skilled version of Cotto. I said this the
day after the Cotto/Margarito fight that Cotto boxed the best first six
rounds of his career in that fight. It was a thing of beauty. One of
the best boxing exhibitions I had seen in a very long time.
The problem was while offensively while it was beautiful,
defensively it was lacking. In the end Cotto just ran out of gas and
his spirit was broken that he gave Margarito his best shot and he just
Mosley is a smarter fighter than Cotto and won't get hit nearly as
much while landing as much if not more against Margarito. Similar to
how Paul Williams beat Margarito he will put early rounds in the bank
and will be better equipped to hold on at the end.
Lastly you just have to go with your gut. Always trust your gut. I
don't think Margarito has the mental makeup to be a long term champion.
In the end I think he will be remembered for beating Cotto and not much
else. He simply isn't skilled enough to continuously beat top flight
boxers. Smart fighters like Mosley, like Williams can easily see how to
defeat him and as long as they stick to the game plan they will win
every single time.
Shane Mosley 12 Round Unanimous Decision.
MARK THE TAPE!!!!