The Preseason Admonition warns against using Preseason NFL performance to handicap the regular season. As with almost every admonition, however, there are exceptions. One of those exceptions occurs in cases in which a team tries to win in the Preseason, but can't beat an opponent that is simply going through the motions. One of the most important factors in handicapping NFL exhibition games is the intention of each... Read more

Information about team and coach intentions, rotations, and readiness is the only thing the handicapper has to work with in the Preseason. This year, a new dimension has been added in the early games that has made obtaining information even more important than normal. Due to the lockout, the teams have barely had enough time to get their starters in shape to play. That has created a situation in which there has been less... Read more

Normal 0 THERE'S MORE TO BASEBALL THAN PITCHING AND STREAKS Normal 0 © Robert Crowne & Assoc., July 9, 2011 I am forever amazed at how many baseball bettors rely solely on pitching statistics to make their selections. Then, when the better pitcher loses, those same bettors wonder why. Like every other sport, baseball has an offense as well as a defense, and a team behind the... Read more

The best team lost the Super Bowl. The manner in which Super Bowl XLV played itself out provided a perfect demonstration of the problems facing football handicappers. Those problems prevent even the best handicappers from winning at better than a 60% long-term rate. We all know the platitudes regarding NFL games and the Super Bowl in particular: 1.. The Super Bowl is won by the superior defense. 2. The team with... Read more

The Pack are back. The team that played in, and won, the very first Super Bowl, and repeated in Super Bowl II, brings their socialist, share-the-wealth act back to the Championship game. Comedian Bill Mahr, in a recent monologue on his HBO weekly TV show, claimed that the NFL's penchant for pooling the income of all teams and redistributing that wealth among them equally made the NFL a socialist enterprise. Mahr was... Read more

Observations of a Professional Handicapper Sunday, December 10, 2010 J ets/Pittsburgh total of 36 If you bet the Jets at Pittsburgh to score less than 36 points, here's a lesson for you that will allow you to profit from the folly and misconceptions of the general public. The only reason the total was the lowest on the board all week is that snow was predicted in Pittsburgh. In fact, it did snow. The public... Read more

There are three sets of statistics from which to choose for the purpose of handicapping a Bowl game being played on a truly neutral field: 1. Neutral field statistics when they are available. 2. Away statistics for both teams 3. Overall statistics including Home, Away, and Neutral field games. Many handicappers make the mistake of assuming that because both teams are playing on the road, that the most accurate... Read more

Unlike the regular season, won-lost records are one of the most important handicapping tools in the preseason. In some cases, SU won-lost trends are the only handicapping tool available for a preseason game. They must, however, be used properly and with the exercise of common sense. The handicapper uses won-lost records as an indication of coaching attitude. When attempting to discern coaching attitudes, some analysts... Read more

Preseason football is one of the only places in which trends across several seasons can be meaningfully used. The reason is that the winner of any game in the NFL Preseason is controlled almost entirely by which team is playing to win. Which team wants to depends on just three things: 1. The desire of the coach. 2. The desire of the owner. 3. The desire of the players when there is a battle for the starting or second... Read more

College Tournament Handicapping © Rob Crowne & Assoc., March 12, 2010 Successfully handicapping the NCAA Conference Playoffs and the NCAA Tournament requires an awareness of the special factors the game location presents. The supposedly neutral sites are not necessarily neutral. To analyze any advantage that may lie in the location of the game, you must fully understand the factors that create a... Read more