In "The AFL IS EASY PICKINGS - Part 1" we discussed the reasons that Arena Football provides a higher degree of handicapping predictability than the NFL. Forecast accuracy is only part of the story, however
If the lines are set to reflect the handicapper's forecasted result, no matter how accurate that handicapper may be, he cannot gain any advantage. For a handicapper to achieve wagering success, the sport must not only be predictable, but the lines must be inaccurate from a handicapping standpoint. The win percentage will increase with the accuracy of the predictions and with the distance of the lines from those predictions.
Most NFL lines are kept very close to the probable handicapped result because of the professional betting action. The big-money professionals and syndicate groups like to bet the NFL because the large public betting pools allow them to wager large sums without greatly influencing the line. These professional groups tend to be very accurate in their handicapping. To prevent and compensate for the large sums of money that the professional groups will bet on one side of the game, the line-makers must set lines and move the lines to closely reflect the predicted results of the professional bettors.
AFL betting, on the other hand, is very thin. Betting very large sums into a small betting pool can move a line as much as 7 points. The professional gambling syndicates simply can't get enough money down on AFL games to interest them.
Linemakers do not set lines to be an accurate prediction of the game result. They set lines to split betting action between the two sides of the game. In the absence of the smart-money betting syndicates, the line-maker must worry only about the betting action of the amateurs. As a result, AFL lines are set at points that have more to do with hype, home-town fans, and won-lost records than with accurate handicapping.
For the above reasons, lines in the AFL have less correlation to the forecast of skilled handicappers than lines in the NFL. This lack of an accurate line in the AFL combined with the high predictability of game results has created unusually high win percentages and a very lucrative betting opportunity for the knowledgeable football handicapper who is seeking to bet no more than a maximum of $1000 to $2000 per game
At the Crowne Club we are maintaining AFL results close to 70%. Tonight we have a top-rated 3-star selection on the Monday Night Game being televised on ESPN-2. The game kicks off at 10:00 PM Eastern. Our record on top plays this season has been above 80% for all the reasons discussed in Parts 1 and 2. To get tonights very high probability winning selection CLICK HERE.
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