The 3-Point Solution

"Anyone who thinks the Preseason is meaningless doesn't understand football." -- Bill Parcells

Many bettors believe that NFL Preseason games are meaningless and, therefore, cannot be bet profitably.  In fact, the opposite is true.  The preseason presents one of the most lucrative betting opportunities in the NFL. 

Have you noticed that over 80% of the games in the NFL preseason are set at or within 1/2 point of 3?  On Saturday August 23, every game except the St.Louis/Baltimore contest had a line initially set exactly on 3.  Sixty-two percent of the games with a 3-point line on Saturday had the home team as the favorite.

Linemakers set lines with the intention of splitting public opinion on each game.  When the public can't form an opinion, or the linemaker can't decide what the public opinion might be, the solution for the linemaker is to set the line at 3, which is the most frequent final differential in NFL games.  The most common line in the preseason is the home team favored by 3.  That line is arrived at simply by setting the game at a pick, and then giving the home team a standard home field edge.  All those 3-point lines don't represent the linemaker's opinion as to the result of the game.  The 3-point home team lines represent the lack of any clear opinion from the public as to which team is most likely to win straight up. 

Good handicappers don't win by luck, and they don't win by calculating which team is better straight up.  Good handicappers win by recognizing when the public's perception of a game is far enough away from the most likely final result to warrant an investment in the outcome.

The preseason is a yearly mystery for most bettors.  That mystery results in indecision by the bettors, and the application of the 3-point solution in the majority of games.  At no other time in the football season are so many lines set so far away from the actual probable result of the game as they are in the preseason.  That means that at no other time is there so much opportunity for those who know how to gauge which teams will be trying to win and which teams won't be trying in that day's preseason games.

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