The 3-Point Solution
"Anyone who thinks the Preseason is
meaningless doesn't understand football." -- Bill Parcells
bettors believe that NFL Preseason games are meaningless and, therefore, cannot
be bet profitably. In fact, the
opposite is true. The preseason
presents one of the most lucrative betting opportunities in the NFL.
you noticed that over 80% of the games in the NFL preseason are set at or
within 1/2 point of 3? On Saturday
August 23, every game except the St.Louis/Baltimore contest had a line
initially set exactly on 3. Sixty-two
percent of the games with a 3-point line on Saturday had the home team as the
set lines with the intention of splitting public opinion on each game. When the public can't form an opinion, or
the linemaker can't decide what the public opinion might be, the solution for
the linemaker is to set the line at 3, which is the most frequent final
differential in NFL games. The most
common line in the preseason is the home team favored by 3. That line is arrived at simply by setting
the game at a pick, and then giving the home team a standard home field
edge. All those 3-point lines don't
represent the linemaker's opinion as to the result of the game. The 3-point home team lines represent the
lack of any clear opinion from the public as to which team is most likely to
win straight up.
handicappers don't win by luck, and they don't win by calculating which team is
better straight up. Good handicappers
win by recognizing when the public's perception of a game is far enough away
from the most likely final result to warrant an investment in the outcome.
preseason is a yearly mystery for most bettors. That mystery results in indecision by the bettors, and the
application of the 3-point solution in the majority of games. At no other time in the football season are
so many lines set so far away from the actual probable result of the game as
they are in the preseason. That means that at no other time is there so much opportunity for those who know how to
gauge which teams will be trying to win and which teams won't be trying in that day's preseason games.
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Robert Crowne & Assoc., August 24, 2008