The definition of stupid is someone who can't learn, even from experience.  Put a rat in a maze and give it electric shocks when it goes the wrong way and it will quickly learn the maze.   Not the KC Cheifs' Chief Coach Herm Edwards.

He keeps making the same mistake over and over and over again.  He keeps failing but he still can't seem to learn.  That is true stupidity.  It's probably not his fault.  He was likely born stupid.  But does that mean NFL teams have to keep hiring him and paying the moron big bucks.

This is no less than the thrid article I'm writing on the net about Herm Edwards' penchant for going for 2 points at the exactly wrong time.  Worse yet, he's not alone.  The problem is epidemic in the NFL.

What does it take to read some books on statistical analysis of football and learn that the probability of makiing a 2-point conversion is only only one in three.  With a team that hasn't exactly been dominant in a game, the probability is a great deal less.  

With less than a minute to go, KC scored a TD to close to within one point of SD.  The final score of the game ended with a final score of Chargers 20 - Chiefs 19.  What happened?  Did the 1 in 50 chance that an extra point will be missed come in?  Nope.  What happened is that the that true genius the KC Chiefs call a coach, Herm Edwards, decided to go for two points in order to get the win.  The effort wasn't even close.

Edwards traded a 95% chance of a tie for a 67% chance of a loss.  Worse yet, on the the 1 in 3 chance that the Chiefs made the two points,  there were still 53 seconds left.   That's more than enough for the Chargers to get into FG range and win the game anyway.  

So what was Edwards plan if he missed the 2-point conversion.  It was an onside kick.  If his team recovers the onside kick, maybe the missed point won't matter.  The question is, if you plan to make an onside kick, why not tie the game and try for the onside kick knowing the game will go to overtime if SD doesn't score a field goal, and your team doesn't recover the kick.  If SD scores the field goal they will win, just as they would do if you made the 2-point conversion.  If KC recovers the onside kick, the Cheifs have the same probability of scoring again in regulation and winning without the 2-point conversion.  The only thing trying a 2-point converson does is give you only a 33% chance of getting to overtime if you can't score again.  

Even Leon Lett was able to figure out from bad experience that he shouldn't dance before he gets into the endzone.  Herm Edwards is not only dumber than a rat, he's dumber than Leon Lett.  That's no easy accomplishment.  Happily his actions made no difference to anyone except his team, but that may not always be true.  Herm Edwards as coach is the best reason I know to never bet on the Kansas City Chiefs.

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