Yesterday, in a post entitled "Sunday Night Propositions," I wrote:
"Handicappable propositions are some of the most profitable bets one can make."
As proof I gave you four of the best propositions for Sunday Night. The free props were 3-1, and should have been 4-0 were it not for a pass that was thrown right into the receiver's hands on the goal line and was promptly dropped for no apparent reason, resulting in a field goal rather than a TD as San Diego's first score.
Not every proposition is a money maker, however. Some cannot be handicapped, are strictly based on luck, and are widely thought of as sucker bets. Some examples of the type of propositons you should stay away from are:
Which team will win the coin toss?
Will the coin toss be heads of tails?
Which team will kickoff first?
Will the final score be odd or even?
If you decide to bet the coin toss at odds from -110 to -120, you need to sit down and have a long serious talk with yourself.
Other propositions that are less obviously
not capable of being handicapped are:
The number of receptions that any particular player will have (too much depends on the defense and the playing time of the receiver).
The over/under on the shortest TD.
The over/under on the longest or shortest Field Goal.
The team to make the first coaches' challenge.
Will there be a safety?
It is the existence of the propositions above that has given all propositions the reputation of being sucker bets, but, as we demonstrated last night, nothing could be further from the truth. I personally played 18 propositions last night. I won 14 and lost 4. Only six of the props were favorites, the rest were pick or underdogs. As often happens with the props, I cleaned up.
Many bookmakers, knowing the advantage the player can get on props, deal a 30 or 40 cent line on them to attempt to mitigate the advantage. With a 30 cent line the difference between the favorite and the underdog is 30 cents. For example, -150 to +120. A pick game is quoted as -115 in both directions. A 40 cents line has a 40 cent differential between the favorite and the underdog. A pick game on a 40 cent line is -120 in both directions. You can still win with a 30 cent or 40 cent line, but it will cut your winnings down substantially. It is well worth the time to make calls and shop for a bookmaker that offers a regular 20 cent line on props.
Despite the easy result, the side and total in last night's game were very difficult to handicap with confidence. Not so tonight. Normally I don't have a GAME OF THE YEAR
level play until later in the season. It's often difficult to say that a selection is the best you'll see if there are still many games to go. Tonight's play, however, is the best opportunity I've seen in a very long time. Last season not a single NFL game provided the opportunity that this game provides. This game is rated the TOP PREGAME RATING OF 3-STARS AND IS MY MONDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE YEAR. To get it CLICK HERE.
I will also be putting up the best proposition bets for Monday Night in a separate PROP PACKAGE. The full card of prop lines is first posted at about 6:00 PM and they take quite a while to handicap. I should have the package up for you by about 8:00 PM. CLICK HERE.
The two packages together will set you up for the entire week.