HILTON CONTEST – MORE OBSERVATIONS
Coming into this week, after 50 selections, all of the contestants have fallen under 70%. None of the top 5 contestants could do any better than 3-2 this week, and all are now below 69%. This season is no different from every other season in that regard. Remember that the next time some tout claims to have been 74% last season. If he passes the lie detector test on that question, your second question should be, "How many selections do you call a season?"
Many services attempt to remain in the short term by dividing their record between pro and college, and then subdividing further between sides and totals, and then subdividing further between service clubs or between the late information plays, the 800 number plays, the 900 number plays, the early email plays, and the individual internet pick package plays. Unbelievably, some subdivide still further between Monday Night, Sunday Night, Thursday Night, Thanksgiving, College Bowls, NFL Playoffs, and each of the conferences and divisions. Some even claim to be an individual team expert, and divide their record by team.
Just in case they can’t come up with a lucky winning record somewhere in all those tiny categories, they further categorize their selections with dozens of names. The Super Duper Blooper Plays are an amazing 14-2 over he past 8 years. What goes unmentioned is that over the same time period the Super Duper Pooper Plays and the Super Duper Stupor Plays are 0-6 and 2-8 respectively, for a combined 2-14 over the same period. I heard one sports service with two complimentary selection buttons on his information phone proudly proclaim that he was 64% in football on button #2, while failing to mention that he had an almost exactly opposite record on his football selections released on button #1. As far as I could determine, the choice of which button on which to place any complimentary selection was completely random.
The best subdivision statement I have ever heard is, "Every time we have a big play we have a losing weekend. If you eliminate the weekends on which we had big plays, we’re 64%." To which I ask the question, "Why stop at simply eliminating the losing weekends?" Would you believe that if I eliminate every loser I have released I am an amazing 100%! Beat that!
Obviously, subdividing between the winner and the losers will stand forever as the ultimate picks subdivision. It is also the most honest, because when touts hand out records for any tiny subdivision that happens to be winning, eliminating the losers from the winners is exactly what they are doing.
Despite all that, it is more likely that a handicapper will achieve a good record outside the contest. The reason is, as I’ve stated before, the contest forces everybody to have exactly 5 picks no matter how many selections the handicapper actually believes have a good chance of covering the spread. As I told you in my pick post, among my five selections there were several fillers, I identified my best bet of the day was Kansas City. Kansas City covered easily. They were also my only side play on the 1:00 PM Eastern time games at the Crowne Club. The majority of my official selections at the Crowne Club were totals. The Hilton Contest doesn’t allow totals. Without being hamstrung by the Contest rules, it probably would have taken 75 selections before every contestant dropped below 70%, but suffice it to say that if the Contest were longer they would all be below 60%.
The best I have ever seen from any handicapper after 500 selections is 59%. Consider that to be like the speed of light, a barrier that is impossible to cross. .
Fezzik won twice in a row with records above 60%, but now that he has made 220 selections his total record is below 60%. His record this season is just 41%, almost completely wiping out one of the past two years. Of the eight contestants who finished last year above 60%, only two have winning records this year above the 52.4% needed to cover the vig, and only three have records at 50% or better. The rest are below 50%, to bring them below 60% overall for the two years.
I went back to winning with the "Contest picks" this past Sunday, making me a winner in three out of the past four weeks. As I told you in my pick post, I tied the best record among the top 5 contestants with a 3-2. That’s not good enough. If the top contestants all win 3-2 every week along with me, I won’t be able to progress. It’s looking grim for both Fezzik and me. We were tied going into this week. He’s on Denver +10 tonight. If Denver covers, he’ll be 4-1 on the week and ahead of me by one game. If Denver pushes, he’ll gain ½ point and have 23.5 points to my 23 points. If Denver loses, he’ll be 3-2 this week and still in a tie with me.
To find out if I agree with Fezzik on the winner of tonight’s football games, CLICK HERE. If we agree, you have a great play, if we don’t agree, go with my pick.
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