In tonight's game between New Orleans and Minnesota the most common posted points line is New Orleans favored by 3 laying -120. There are some just plain 3 flats around, and a very few lines of 3 1/2 flat There is also a money line of -160. Normally the points line is preferable no matter which way you choose to go, but not tonight.
A favorite with a line of 3 will push the spread 9% of the time and will win by 1 or 2 another 4% of the time. Based on those percentages, moving the line down to pick is the equivalent of a 13% advantage to the player if the points line is -3, a 16.83% advantage to the player if the points line is 3 -120, and a 16.54% advantage if the points line is -3 1/2. Betting the underdog at odds of +140 provides the bettor with a 16.67% edge. This is little different than the edge you are giving up by not betting the underdog at +3 !/2, but you will win much more often even though you will come out the same in the long run. Winning more often is always preferable. .If you believe that Minnesota will win or cover you will be better off taking the points line of +3 1/2 or +3 even, but taking the +140 instead of +3 laying -110..
If you want to know which side will win, I've got a strong side play on the game tonight. CLICK HERE TO WIN