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Pregame Blogs

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  • Created On:
    09/07/2011 9:56 PM
  • Last Update:
    06/08/2017 10:19 AM


Here's some information to help you to bet like a professional in the NCAA Tournament tonight and get the best of everything.

In the NCAA Championship game tonight I'm seeing a line of North Carolina -7.5.  It's been a solid 7.5 all day, but appears like it may be moving down to -7.  That trend should reverse itself as we get closer to game time.   

The money line is -380 in most places.  Some books have only a 40 cent spread with a comeback of +340.  Others are taking as much as 75-80 cents and have a comeback of  +300 or +305.

Assuming the points line you get is -7.5 laying -110 each way, the equivalent money is approximately +/- 315.  Obviously if you like North Carolina you, don't want to pay -380 to get something that is only worth -315.  So if you like the Tar Heels it is best to lay the points.

If you like Michigan State, however, and you can get +330 or better, the better bet is to take the money line.  You won't be getting the beefit of the 7.5 point handicap, but you are selling them to the bookmaker for more than they are worth.  


The public tends to bet favorites and overs.  The reason they like to bet the favorite is obvious.  Amateurs tend to bet he team they believe to be the better team.  The reason for betting the over is that is that the over is the "comfort" bet.  Bettors have nothing but bad memories about under bets.  When you bet the under, you often need to worry all the way to the end of the game.  Unders can't cover with 6 minutes left to go like overs can.  What's worse, if you bet the favorite and the under, you may be unable to root for anything at the end.

As we said, the public like favorites.  If you bet the favorite you root for the favorite to win big.  Winning big normally means scoring plenty of points.  When you bet the "over" you also root for plenty of points.  What could be worse than North Carolina leading by 4 tonight with 2 minutes to go and the total combined score at 143, and you bet North Carolina and the under.  If you root for North Carolina the under may not win.  If you root for the under, North Carolina may not cover.  Worst of all, North Carolina could fail to cover and the game could go over.  If you bet the favorite and the over, you can root for the double win, and if you don't get it, you still may get the over.

When you have a game that will get a large amount of public action, such as the Championship game tonight, you can expect  to see the spread on the favorite and the line on the total move up as you get closer to game time.  The maximum spread and total should be available abnut 1/2 hor to game time.  At that point, any smart money that likes the dog and and those who want to bet a middle or buy back some of their earlier action will come in and stoop the rise in the line.  

If the line on the favorite and total do not move up into toward game time, you can be fairly certain that there is a ton of money coming in from the professionals and betting groups that is evening out that public action.  Be careful, though, the fact that a large amount of money is bet does not mean that the people bettingg it are winners.  Many syndicate groups and a decent number of whales are losers.  If the line doesn'g move up, it could be that Kerry Packer, a very rich Austalian whale and sucker bettor put $500,000 on the underdog or the under.  Known suckers like Packer can get in as much action as they want.  You don't, however, want to follow those guys.  

RULE:  Never bet line moves unless you know who or what caused the move, and you can get the play at the original line before the move.

If you like the favorite or the over, you should bet at least two hours before game time or wait until ten minutes before the game..  If you like the underdog or the under you should wait until 45 minutes before the game.

This game will be played at Ford Field in Detroit.  Ford Field is Mishigan State's home away from home.  But North Carolina beat Michigan State by a huge 35 points this season playing at this very location.  

It's the immovable object against the irresistable force.  Will North Carolina dominate again, or will the home edge work its magic and allow Michigan State to avenge the earlier loss?

The Wall Street Syndicate knows.  They get the best handicapping and the best information in the country.  Those handicappers have isolated factors creating a sufficient edge for one side to warrant a bet.  Bet with the group that you have watched accumulate an almost perfect 7-1 (88%) record in my Syndicate Tournament packages this season.  All the selections in my packages last week from the Syndicate and me combined finished the week at 8-2 (80%).  CLICK HERE to get tonight's winner from the Syndicate and an analysis from me.


A professional sports bettor and card player for 24 years, Rob is known as being as an expert handicapper and bettor, as well as one of the few sources for picks of the professional sports betting groups... Read more

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