Gill Alexander is a pioneer in applying advanced statistics (i.e., Sabermetrics) to handicapping and MLB betting. Gill joined RJ Bell on the “Today in Sports Betting” podcast to discuss. News from the interview . . .
Value uncovered from Sabermetric analysis points to opportunity on the underdog side of baseball games much more often than the favorite side. This is consistent with the general principal that the unsophisticated public has a bias toward backing the favorites in the marketplace.
A large percentage of Sabermetric data is not accounted for in the marketplace even if the data is applied in a imprecise fashion. Areas of nuance include distinctions between early, middle, and late season. Specifically, the early season has less data to consider, and the mid-season presents questionable motivation for the teams out of the playoff race, while the late season includes many minor league call-ups.
University-level quantitative analysis is not typically applied to sports betting for a number of reasons, including an inverse correlation between sports betting experience during formative years and the pursuit of a hard-science PhD, plus the large number of investment firms throwing around large amounts of money to recruit the leading quants.
Winning handicappers are inclined to creating result feedback loops – i.e., following closely what is working (and what is not) in their handicapping. The average square bettor does not consider the truth of his results nearly enough. Paradoxically, handicappers have to be careful not to mistake unavoidable variance with a fundamental changes that merit handicapping adjustments.
>>> Listen to the entire interview with Gill Alexander and host RJ Bell
Listen to Gill’s Podcast with the Executive Director of Las Vegas Sports Consultants
Gill’s homepage: www.BettingDork.com
All podcasts: www.PregamePodcasts.com
Michael Lewis Book Moneyball
Comments . . .
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