Sports betting authority RJ Bell of Pregame.com provides a simple blueprint to improve anyone's bracket results.
Las Vegas, Nevada (March 15, 2009) - "Over 12 BILLION dollars is expected to be wagered on the 2009 NCAA Basketball Tournament - which is more than was bet on the Super Bowl," said RJ Bell of Pregame.com. "And over 40 million Americans are expected to take part in bracket-style office pools." No sporting even generates more action. Here are 11 history tested rules that can help any one win their bracket pool.
1st round rules: Pick no more than two seeds worse than #12. #16 seeds are 0 for 96 in the modern era (since 1985). #15 seeds are 4 for 96. #13 and #14 seeds combined win only 18% of first round games.
Don't be shy about picking upsets with #12 through #9 seeds. Give special consideration to picking #12 seeds: they have won 13 of 32 matchups vs. #5 seeds the last eight years. #9 seeds have won over half their games (54%) vs. #8 seeds.
2nd round rules: Advance #1 seeds almost automatically into the 3rd round. #1 seeds win their first two games 87% of the time.
Keep advancing the #12 and #10 seeds you picked to win in Round One. These teams win over half the time in Round Two.
Seeds lower than #12 DO NOT win in the 2nd round. Only 6 of 368 teams that have advanced past Round 2 were seeded lower than #12.
Sweet 16 round rules: Advance exactly three #1 seeds into the Elite 8. There's no reason to buck the math: nearly 72% of #1 seeds advance into the 4th round (that's a higher percentage than #5 seeds who win a single game)!
Advance no team lower than a #11 seed into the Elite 8 (22 have made it to the Sweet 16, but only 1 has ever advanced).
Elite Eight round rules: Advance exactly ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four. Amazingly, exactly one or two #1 seeds have made the Final Four 19 of the last 24 years. Last year was the first with all four #1 seeds making the Final Four; do not allow a single season fluke to outweigh over two decades of history.
Advance no team lower than a #8 seed to the Final Four. Only 2 of 96 Final Four teams have been seeded lower than #8.
Final Four round rules: Advance NO team below a 6th seed to the Championship game. Not a single one has made it in the last 23 years.
Championship game rules: pick a #4 seed or higher to win it all. For 20 straight years the champion has been a #4 seed or higher!
For all of RJ Bell's unique March Madness reporting, visit: http://pregame.com/blogstore/rj-bell/default.aspx
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RJ Bell of Pregame.com is the only sports bettor on Forbes' recent list of Gambling Gurus and has been called "a true insider" by ESPN, "incredibly astute" by AOL and a "point-spread maven" by USA Today. Mr. Bell has been featured on CBS News with Katie Couric, ABC News with Charles Gibson, Nightline, Sportscenter, Outside the Lines (ESPN), First Take (ESPN2), Mike & Mike, Colin Cowherd, Jim Rome, Dan Patrick, ESPN.com, FoxSports.com, Yahoo, CNN.com and in the Wall Street Journal, Associated Press, LA Times, Newsweek.com, Bloomberg, Maxim, and Sports Illustrated. Pregame.com is the largest sports betting news website compliant with US Law.
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