During my 30 year career one thing that has always set me apart was my ability to look at a game and as I like to say "Read the Line". It's sometimes hard to explain but when I read the line it tells me what the Books are thinking and what they are trying to get me to do based on the number they post on a particular game.
Here are some examples:
Line is set too low:
When the favorite is playing well yet Vegas Comes out with a Number that seems too good to be true. This is when they want you to bet the Favorite when really the live side is the Dog and many times not only covers but wins outright. This is always referred to as a Trap Game.
Line is set too high:
A dog is playing well but seems to be getting a high number. Vegas is trying to induce Dog action. The Dog will seem very live but will often get totally blown out. Now this may seem simple but you have to be able to understand what the true number should be to understand what Vegas really wants and avoid this kind of Trap Game.
Reading Line Moves:
This is the most tricky part but one of the things I'm best at. Over the last several years thanks to betting percentage sites people suddenly believe they can pick games by simply following these sites and betting against the public and following line moves. It's a great idea but not that simple. You need to know the difference between public money and sharp money. This is something I have learned over 30 years of betting. Some Moves are just the public hammering away at one side while other moves are the sharps taking a real position on a game.
Think about this for a minute 100 people bet $100 on team A. 30 people bet team B (29) of them for $100 but one sharp Bettor makes a $2500 bet on Team B. The line will have moved in favor of Team A because more money came in on them but in reality the Smart Money was on Team B. Just following betting % sites doesn't give you that info. You need contacts and you need experience with the ability to read a line.
This Basketball Season I'm going to share some of my knowledge with you as I will have a thread where we will watch a game and I will make recommendations based on what I read from the lines and betting patterns thru the day. I will pop in & out of the thread a few times a day with updates and of course my Final Read with the late moves and tell you if indeed this is a Trap Game.
Follow my daily thread at: http://pregame.com/forums
Overnight or by 1:00 EST
Midday Update: 4:00 EST
Final Word: 6:15 EST