By Marc Lawrence
With the Dallas Mavericks and the Miami Heat set to meet in the 2011 NBA Finals, let's look at four solid Championship Round betting theories outlined below from our powerful database. (Note: all results are ATS since 1991 unless noted otherwise.)
HOME ON THE ROAD
Life may be cozy at home, but the money can be found on the road.
Our database finds visiting teams are moneymakers in the championship round, cashing 56% of the time, going 61-48-2 ATS.
Better yet, put them in a game with the Over/Under total is 181 or higher and they improve to a 64% winning proposition, going 50-28-1 ATS.
Put these same teams on the road in games with a total of 181 or more off a SU and ATS loss and they ratchet all the way up to 19-5 ATS.
RETURN TO EARTH
Defense rules in the championship round.
When teams manage to score an inordinate amount of points in any one game, they return to the earth faster than a spaceship from a mission.
That's validated by the fact that teams who score 110 or more points in a championship round showdown are just 5-9 SU and 4-10 ATS in their next contest.
Dress these same teams up as favorites after igniting the scoreboard and they short-circuit out, going 1-8 ATS.
RETURN TO EARTH
And speaking of returning to earth, teams in this round that had the rug pulled out from underneath them the previous game (lost straight up as a favorite) tend to right themselves in a hurry.
That's confirmed by a rock-solid 20-10 SU and 17-12-1 ATS mark in games after being upset, including 11-3 ATS when they take to the road off the applecart loss.
Best of all, when road teams where upset as a favorite and managed not to lose by 20 or more points to the spread, they are 11-1 ATS in these payback affairs.
While the famed ‘Zig-Zag' theory has unraveled the last 10 years in the playoffs, it still works in this round... if you work it right.
To do so you want to play on a dog off one loss exact in the championship round, as they are 22-16 ATS.
Teams taking 5.5 or more points in this role increase to 13-5 ATS, including 10-1 ATS if they own a win percentage of .647 or more.
There you have it. Four time tested Championship Round theories. Play accordingly and, like the eventual champions, you too shall rule.