Joakim Noah has drawn the ire of Cleveland fans with his criticism of the that city, but he let his play do the talking on Monday night, scoring 25 points and grabbing 13 rebounds. He was one of three Bulls to reach 20 points, as Deng had 20 and Rose 23 plus eight assists. However, after all was said and done, the Bulls leave Cleveland down 0-2 in the series. LeBron scored 40 points (added eight rebounds and eight assists), 15 of which came in the fourth quarter, as the Cavs outscored the Bulls 35-25. The 10-point win was enough to give the Cavs a 2-0 series lead but not a Game 2 'cover.'
The Cavs were 10 1/2-point favorites in the game and through 10 games of this year's postseason, SIX of the 10 games have seen the final score fall within a basket of the closing pointspread. Game 2 of the Jazz/Nuggets series was not one of those six though, as the short-handed Jazz (led by 33 points and 14 assists by Deron Williams) won 114-11 at Denver last night as six-point dogs (series is tied at one-all). The Jazz were just the second road team to win SU in this year's postseason but home teams are just 6-4 ATS after 10 games (8-2 SU).
Both games went 'over' the total last night, with the Bulls/Cavs game 'flying over' (by about 22 points above the closing number) and the Jazz/Nuggets game finishing 12 points over its closing number. That's in contrast to Sunday's action in which two of the four totals landed right on the closing number plus the Por/Pho game saw its total 'sneak' over by a half-point or point. I'm charting the first 10 games as five overs, three unders and two pushes.
The "Zig-Zag Theory" rose to prominence back in the 1980s. Playoff series often feature a set of back-to-back games (although rarely on back-to-back nights). The thinking went, it made sense to play on the team which had just lost the previous game, using the "quick-revenge angle." Linemakers quickly adjusted to this situation and over the years, the Zig-Zag Theory has offered little value playing it 'blindly' over the years. Yes, it went 2-0 ATS last night, as bettors would have cashed with both the Bulls and Jazz.
However, take a look at what the Gold Sheet published in its final issue of the season, regarding the Zig-Zag theory through the years. Strict followers of this 'system' finished the 2009 playoffs at 36-31-3 ATS, benefitting from a strong 19-11-3 ATS mark in the last three rounds. The Gold Sheet's 13-year study found the record to be 421-381-21 which is plus-40 games but just plus-1.9 net games, after including juice. It's 26-year record sits at 831-698-33 or plus-133 games, but just plus-63.2 net games. That's less than plus-2.5 net games per playoff season, hardly a serious "money-maker!"
It's a busy Tuesday night on the hardwood, with TNT featuring a doubleheader. The Heat and Celtics are up first at 8:05 ET from Boston. The Celtics lead the series 1-0 but KG has been suspended for this game due his late-game elbow on Saturday night. That's reflected in the line, as Boston is favored by just one point (total is 181 1/2). The Thunder and Lakers follow around 10:35 ET, with the defending champs up 1-0. Durant was held to just 7-of-24 FG attempts in Game 1 (mostly by Artest) and the NBA's youngest-ever scoring champ will try and help his team end an 11-game playoff losing streak in LA by the Thunder/Sonics. The Lakers are favored by six points (total is 191 1/2).
The Bucks and Hawks are the first game to tip-off tonight, at 7:05 ET. Atlanta won and covered Game 1 and is favored by 7 1/2-points tonight (total is 187 1/2). The Suns host the Blazers at 10:05 ET, trailing 1-0 in the series, after the Blazers won Game 1 in Phoenix, 105-100. I think it's fair to say this is a "must win" situation for the Suns. However, can they win? And if they can, will they cover? The Suns are favored by 8 1/2-points (total is 203).
Good luck...Larry