With the clock ticking and football around the corner, why not bust open the notebooks and start talking some pigskin. What theories or guidelines do you attempt to follow every season betting football? Even though I feel the do's and don't could be endless, here are a couple of mine:
Due to Win will make you Due to Go Broke:
The Due to Win theory has sent more people to the poor house than the 1929 Stock Market Crash. One of my favorite lines of any handicapper is from Phil Steele and his famous You can lose many times betting against a streak but only lose once betting on one. Just because a team has lost 5 in a row against the number does not mean they HAVE (due) to cover that sixth game. The Martingale System or any other system for progressive wagering whether used to play blackjack or bet on sports is doomed to fail. A team dropping 7 in a row for a $100 bettor: $110, $220, $440, $880, $1760, $3520, $7070. So besides being buried, try explaining to your book why a $100 bettor has to bet $7000+ on this weekend's big game!
Trends, Smends:
Even though trends can be useful ammunition in a handicappers arsenal, most of the time it can do more damage than good. I was cleaning out some old files under the stairs and found a piece I did on the National Title Game between Ohio State and Miami. My research had the Hurricanes 6-1 ATS in non-conference road games the last 3 seasons and Ohio State is 1-8 ATS in Bowl Games since 1992. Miami is the play, right? But wait, Ohio State is 7-1 ATS when playing Big East opponents since 1992. But wait, Miami is 5-1 ATS against Big 10 opponents since 1992! There is not a game on the schedule this year that with enough research you could not come up with multiple high winning % trends for either side. Another set of notes from that year found the underdog in the Clemson/Virginia series is 10-1 ATS. The game being in Clemson that year, odds are Virginia would be getting points. Play Virginia right? Problem is the Clemson game is the week after they play North Carolina. So, why does that matter we have a 10-1 trend play? Because the game after playing North Carolina they are 1-8 ATS. If there is any advice I could give in regards to trends is narrow them down to the most basic reasoning that does not require 13 variables to give itself a 90% winning percentage. When you start seeing things like road teams on grass after a double digit loss in January before a bye week when getting double digits points with Venus aligned with Mars and a rerun of the Simpsons on at 6:30, it is time to sit back and follow the famous acronym, K.I.S.S. (Keep It Simple Stupid!).
Three Yards and a Cloud of Dust:
Passing is fun to watch, but running is the key. One of my all time favorite stats is back toward the end of the 90's when out of 276 games that had a line with an actual spread winner, the team that had more rushing yards covered 202 times. Look it up, 202 times!
As mentioned to start this piece I brought up the fact there are endless amounts of advice we can share with each other. So, the conch shell is pass. What is your tip going into football season?