If you will be betting any MLB Fall Ball this September, you
will want to pay attention to what is being written in this article.
In my MLB daily analysis of August games, I gave you a
running tally of how well favorites have been doing in the month of
August. To update you once again: for the last 25 days through Sunday, August
28th 2011 favorites are 200-114 winning 64% of the games. As a subset of that, one should note that road favorites, often at much shorter prices, have gone 94-48 (66%), including
15-4 the last 4 days. My picks haveoften reflected these records. The psychology behind the success of road favorites in August is relatively simple. The best of these plays occur when super-surging contenders play with great focus on the road against towel-tossing pretenders whose fans are not providing nearly as much vocal support or attendance as the first half of the season. With still at least a month to play in the season, none of the favorites have gotten fat yet.
But as the days get shorter, the Division leads widen, and the prices become more inflated, the psychology will begin to shift. Now, these favorites become complacent. The managers of the contending teams begin to rest their starters (both pitchers and regulars) as they plan for post season festivities. At the same time, the underdog, though having no hope for the current season, turns its attention to playing for next year’s roster spot and padding their stats. That includes players on the September call up list looking to make a name for themselves in The Show.Combined with less focus on the part of the favorites and the value prices, September is a month when dogs can really howl.
Odds are that with the way the dog days of August have
played out once again this season that there will be plenty of money to be made
by playing the short at value prices in the month of September.