Now that the teams have played 100 games, one of our most valuable charts that we update each day is our record of how teams do in 3 or 4 game series throughout the season. With a 162 game grind many teams find it mentally helpful to isolate individual series as a way to maintain their mental edge and motivation. As is often the case, I will save you the trouble of not only keeping these records, which would be very hard to find anywhere else, but I will also highlight the results for you. These are just one of many, many factors I analyze when handicapping an MLB game.
The first area we will examine is the out come of 3 or 4 game series. We break it down by home and road logging whether each team wins, loses or ties each series. Here are the highlights from this chart for the season to date:
Philadelphia: 24-8 in all series
Milwaukee: 13-4 in home series
Pittsburgh: 19-8-4 in all series
San Francisco: 21-7-3 in all series
Boston: 20-9-1 in all series
NY Yankees: 20-7-3 in all series
LA Angels: 20-9-3 in all series
Chicago Cubs: 7-22-2 in all series
Milwaukee: 2-11-2 away series
Houston : 7-22-2 in all series
San Diego: 4-12 in home series
Baltimore: 3-12 in away series
Many of these results are not surprising to you. Some of them may be. Regardless, these statistics are very valuable when handicapping the third or fourth game of the series.
The next area we examine is how teams do at home and away to sweep a series or be swept in a series. The key statistic you need to know about this is that only 22% of 3 or 4 game series result in sweeps. The following are the good and bad numbers you need to know when examining game 3 or 4 of a series. The first number is the number of times a team has swept a series, the second number is the number of times a team was swept in a series. As a point of reference you should understand that each team has played at least 30, 3 or 4 game series for the year to date.
Philadelphia: 5-0
Atlanta: 5-0
Milwaukee: 7-0 Home
Boston: 8-3
Tampa Bay: 5-1
Cleveland: 7-2
Texas: 7-1
Milwaukee: 1-4 Away
Houston: 1-8
Pittsburgh: 1-4 Away
Minnesota: 2-6
Kansas City: 1-6
Seattle: 2-9
Once again many of these statistics will not be of a surprise to you. That's not the point. Use them wisely when handicapping your third or fourth game of a 3 or 4 game series. But also, always use them in conjunction with other responsible handicapping methods.
The third part of handicapping an MLB 3 or 4 game series is examining a team's ability to bounce back following a loss and to avoid being swept. This segment will highlight the teams who are good or bad in this area. Specifically, the results tell us how a team does off a loss to today's foe when looking to prevent a series sweep. This may come in the second, third or fourth game in a series, but it does not reflect how our team does if they have already won a game in the series. Incidentally, for the year to date this situation is only slightly over .500 with equal profit both home and away.
Philadelphia: 11-3 (+585)
NY Mets: 16-9 (+1080)
Arizona: 16-9 (+945)
Houston: 16-26 (-710)
Baltimore: 10-20 (-840)
Seattle: 7-25 (-1900)
There may be more surprises in this list with teams like the Mets and the D-Backs included and the omission of teams such as Boston and NYY. As you can see this is quite a valuable list. Equally valuable are the home/away splits for each team in the role. But you wouldn't want me to give you everything now would you?
TiSB: What has Joe Gavazzi Learned from 30 Years of Handicapping?One of the most respected handicappers in the world offers 3 decades of insight - plus the story of how the Computer Group really started, and what factors to consider in the unusual 2011 NFL preseason
Joe Gavazzi uses a combination (or blend) of fundamental, statistical, and situational handicapping. He also has a group of close friends and associates on whom he relies for an exchange of information. Many of these are public names that you would recognize that have been in the business over 25 years. Others are Joe’s trusted private sources. Joe also gives verbal analysis of selections to his voice mail clients and on his original Pittsburgh Pipeline. Look for Joe Gavazzi to be more involved with the Pregame Community in the coming weeks!