Recap: We had just one play yesterday on 50%-off Friday, and it was a fairly painless Winner! The road warriors of the NL West, the San Diego Padres, took care of the Marlins, 3-0, with another handful of scoreless innings of relief, and some high wire work by the starter, Clayton Richard. An easy, early win means a nice early blog, as move our Paid Play run to 24-12. I like!
Today: Let's get the weekend started off right. I have my Saturday Player Matchup Special for sale over at my Pro Page, but maybe more importantly, Marco has dropped two sweet deals on me. I have a NEW long term package for sale that goes from NOW until the start of football for the BIGGEST savings on the website. Seriously. I know many of you get the Summer Sizzler deal for $6, but this package actually prices out to just $5.60 per day, LESS than the Sizzler deal. Oh, and if you enter BEBE10 as the coupon code for ANYTHING you buy, you can get 10 bucks off. That's not just for my stuff, that's for everyone's. Good stuff, right?
Sports Wagering: MLB
National League
Padres @ Marlins (-205) with a total of 7; J. Garland vs. J. Johnson;
Jorge Cantu is 5-for-10 off Garland with an RBI;
Mike Lamb is 3-for-8 off Garland with an RBI.
Josh Johnson, well, you guys already know the damage he's been doing to the League, though I must say, if any team can beat Johnson, it's the Padres. All they really have to do is "hang around" for a while, and when Johnson leaves the game, the bullpen is going to look even worse than usual, because they're not Johnson. But, as we're not really volume guys, this one sort of fritters off the table.
Leans: None
Interleague Play
Twins @ Mets (-135) with a total of 7.5; C. Pavano vs. J. Santana;
Delmon Young is 3-for-6 off Santana.
This line is eerily low, isn't it? The Mets have been one of the hottest teams in baseball, and the Twins haven't really been hitting that well on their current road trip. Still, Pavano has been a complete and total horse for the Twins, seemingly going 8 innings every time out (I did say "seemingly"), and over the last 3 starts, Pavano is actually putting up better numbers than Santana. I hate to say it, since I'd love to back the Mets, but due to the perception that Santana is somehow leagues ahead of Pavano, the Twins are a live dog.
Leans: Twins-3
Cardinals @ Royals with a total of N/A; TBA vs. K. Davies;
Come on Cardinals, pick a starter. It's weekend time, so I can't wait around. We'll handicap this one in the morning, but no blog entry. Sorry!
Leans: N/A
Astros @ Rangers (-280) with a total of 10; J. Banks vs. C. Wilson;
Hunter Pence is 4-for-5 off C.J. Wilson before 2010.
Wilson faced the Astros just a few days ago, and gave up 4 runs (only 2 earned) in 7 innings of work in a game the Rangers won, 5-4. The Rangers, somehow, have forgotten how to lose. Obviously, we'll see how Friday's game plays out (since I do write these early), but the rather heavy amplitude on this line makes it a no-play, without question. How about that total? Well, tough to say what Banks is going to do, but Texas has been hitting the heck out of the ball. I fear, though, that if the Rangers play strong defense, Wilson could give up just 2 runs in 7 innings this time around.
Leans: None
Phillies (-135) @ Blue Jays with a total of 9; C. Hamels vs. S. Marcum;
Placido Polanco is 3-for-6 off Marcum;
Ryan Howard hit a 2-run jack in his only AB off Marcum;
Adam Lind is 3-for-6 with a HR off Lind.
This is about as evenly matched a pitching pair as we've seen in a while. Hamels season ERA is 3.75; Marcum's is 3.24. Hamels has 6 wins, Marcum has 6 wins. Hamels is 0-1 with a 5.06 ERA against Toronto, and Marcum is 1-0 with a 5.14 ERA against the Phils. Hamels has been on a nice run of going pretty deep in games with solid strikeout numbers, though his team isn't necessarily winning those games; Marcum seems to be slipping just a tad, and I think that's the reason for this road fave. I know Toronto seems like an easy choice, but I don't think it's so simple.
Leans: Phillies-2
D'backs @ Rays (-205) with a total of 8.5; I. Kennedy vs. D. Price;
B.J. Upton is 3-for-8 with a HR and 3 RBI off Kennedy.
Ian Kennedy is 1-2 with a 6.64 ERA against the Rays, though looking at the numbers, the current Rays don't hit him all that hard. Kennedy has been the D'backs most consistent starter (yes, better than Haren), but that bullpen behind him makes any Kennedy start a potential disaster late. Price hasn't been as unhittable lately as he was early in the season, but where the D'backs fail, the Rays excel, and that's in the pen. I'd love to say the dog is the right play, here, but considering the Rays could score 4 runs in the 7-9th innings, I wouldn't take the chance that the D'backs will be up by 5 at that point.
Leans: None
Tigers @ Braves (-130) with a total of 9; M. Scherzer vs. K. Kawakami;
Yunel Escobar is 5-for-11 off Scherzer;
Chipper Jones is 4-for-8 off Scherzer with a HR and 5 RBI.
You wouldn't think Scherzer would have 3 decisions against Atlanta in his short time in the Bigs, but he's 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA against the Braves. And while Scherzer has pitched better since coming back from the Minors, and the Tigers are 3-2 in his starts, the 3 wins all came at home, and the 2 losses came on the road. Kawakami is 0-9, but the Braves did score enough to win his last start, and are actually 4-1 in the games where Kawakami doesn't receive a decision. I happen to think the strength of this line is indeed a tipped hand.
Leans: Braves-3
Mariners @ Brewers (-125) with a total of 8.5; D. Fister vs. R. Wolf;
Ichiro is 4-for-6 with an RBI off Wolf.
Randy Wolf is starting to heat up. I know that sounds insane, but his last 2 starts have both been extremely solid, going 14 combined innings and allowing 3 total runs. Doug Fister is making his first after missing almost 4 weeks of action. We'll do a little more digging to find out what sort of shape Fister is in, but any time a pitcher isn't quite at full strength and the adrenaline isn't going to be flowing too much more than usual, you have to look to fade that pitcher.
Leans: Brewers-3
Nationals (-125) @ Orioles with a total of 9.5; L. Hernandez vs. B. Bergesen;
Corey Patterson is 7-for-18 with 2 RBI off Hernandez;
Ty Wigginton is 3-for-6 off Hernandez since '05.
I think this line is actually a tad on the cheap side for the Nationals, and I just can't help but think that "home dog" money is what's keeping it so low. Those of you that have been reading this blog since the NBA season know that there are just times where it's extremely clear which side is square and which is sharp, and more than 50% of the time I lean to the sharp side, but to me, this just doesn't make sense. Bergesen had 2 good starts out of 10, and I just can't see Baltimore cracking Livan over his noggin.
Leans: Nationals-4
Indians @ Reds (-145) with a total of 9.5; J. Masterson vs. S. LeCure;
We don't have much to work with, here, as Masterson is 0-1 with a 4.05 ERA against the Reds, and remains one of the streakier pitchers in baseball. Sam LeCure hasn't been too impressive in his Big League work so far, and that's why this line is so low for the Reds, at home. I guess the issue is that the Indians have gone back to losing every night, once again. They were hitting a ton for about a week, but things have tailed off, and even if LeCure isn't that great, you have to think that the Reds lefthanded bats can do some damage off Masterson in this small ballpark.
Leans: None
Red Sox (-160) @ Giants with a total of 8.5; C. Buchholz vs. J. Martinez;
This line is high for a reason. Joe Martinez is not that good, and the Red Sox veterans are going to eat him alive. Clay Buccholz might be among the top-10 pitchers in all of baseball, and yet his name seems to slip through the cracks when all the aces are getting discussed. I don't get that. He's 10-4 with a 2.47 ERA, is coming off a brilliant performance against a Dodgers team that hits righties pretty darn well. An interesting stat: Buccholz has received a decision in all 14 of his starts. Odd.
Leans: None
Yankees @ Dodgers (-110) with a total of 9; A. Burnett vs. H. Kuroda;
Garrett Anderson is 5-for-14 with a HR and 3 RBI off Burnett since '05;
Rafael Furcal is 4-for-13 off Burnett.
This game has the makings of a fun one. A.J. Burnett, struggling of late, faces a team that he's somehow 3-2 against with a 2.45 ERA. A lot of that work came in strangely scheduled Interleague action a few years back, so you can see he hasn't seen much of the Dodgers young bats. Hiroki Kuroda has some absolutely filthy stuff right now, and I really think he can hold the Yanks to 2 runs in 6-7 innings.
Cubs @ White Sox (-115) with a total of 9; C. Silva vs. F. Garcia;
Aramis Ramirez is 5-for-12 with an RBI off Garcia since '05;
Paul Konerko is batting .321 with a HR and 6 RBI off Silva in 28 AB;
A.J. Pierzynski is batting .296 with 2 HR and 5 RBI in 27 AB off Silva since '05.
I honestly don't know how you back the Cubs, here. Silva continues to be decent enough, bordering on good, but his luck seems to be turning a tad, and luck plays a huge role in baseball, as we all know. He's 4-11 against the White Sox, and lost 2-1 to Mark Buerhle 2 weeks ago. I can't imagine he pitches that well again, and even if he does, Freddy Garcia is just rolling right along, consistent as ever.
Leans: White Sox-3
Pirates @ Athletics (-200) with a total of 8.5; D. McCutchen vs. T. Cahill;
Not much to work with, here, but this line is awfully high, and the Pirates stink. Those are the two factors that seem relevant to me. I'm not going to advocate backing the Pirates, especially on the road, until they show some signs of waking up, and it hasn't happened yet. Probably leave this one alone.
Leans: None
Rockies @ Angels (-125) with a total of 9.5; A. Cook vs. J. Saunders;
Melvin Mora is 8-for-18 with a HR and 3 RBI off Saunders;
Miguel Olivo is 3-for-6 with a HR off Saunders.
This game has some sneaky Under trends. First, Colorado is coming off some ridiculously high-scoring, zero-bullpen games at home against the Red Sox, so the line is slightly inflated. Second, Joe Saunders has been getting pummeled in his last 2 starts to raise his ERA up over 5 runs. Yet, Saunders is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA against the Rockies, and Aaron Cook, Colorado's starter today, is 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA against the Angels. They put the ball in play, and with Cook's sinker, he should be able to get a few groundballs at his defense. Sure, this one could be another 16-run fireworks show, but I believe the line is higher than it should be.
Leans: Angels-1, Under-3