I have been asked to bring back a column which I used to run, called
"Bad Beats." As the name implies, the focus will be on sports betting
losses which were particularly hard to swallow.
You know the
kind I'm talking about. Everyone does, beginners and seasoned pros
alike. These type of agonizing defeats are an unfortunate and
inevitable part of wagering. Don't forget that, like beauty, bad beats
are in the eye of the beholder. In other words, each time that you
experience an unlucky loss, keep in mind that someone else is enjoying
a fortunate victory. More importantly, remember that these things have
a way of evening themselves out over the longrun. That being said, some
gamblers have a tendency to forget about the lucky wins while
remembering the unfortunate defeats for much longer.
This
will be a weekly feature here and your participation is encouraged. If
you'd like to share a story about one of your more excruciating losses,
email [email protected]. Please provide as many details as
possible and stick to (recent) football stories only. This week, we'll
look at a pair of promising looking 'under' tickets which both went bad
in the fourth quarter. As this is the first issue of the year and the
term may be new to some, we'll start by defining what a bad beat
actually means.
Definition: In the world of
sports-betting, the term bad beat refers to a heart-breaking gambling
loss, most often occurring when a late score or fluke play changes the
betting outcome of the side or total. In poker, bad beat is a term for
a hand which lost, even though the cards appeared to be strong. It
typically occurs where one player bets the clearly stronger hand and
the opposing player makes a poor call that eventually "hits" and wins.
In both poker and sports, the term is subjective. Therefore, you'll
sometimes find that players/bettors will disagree about whether a
particular hand or game was a bad beat.
Carolina at Philadelphia
Thursday, August 14
Under
bettors appeared to be looking very good in this one. The field was
sloppy and the offenses were even sloppier. The score was 10-0 for
Carolina entering the fourth quarter. With a line of +3 or +3.5, those
backing the Panthers felt pretty good about their chances. With the
offenses having done so little, those with 'under' tickets (line ranged
from 35.5 to 36.5) felt even more confident. Everything changed when
the Eagles' backups outscored the Panthers' backups by score of 24-3 in
the fourth quarter though. The final blow occurred when the Eagles ran
back an interception 74 yards for a touchdown with less than 30 seconds
to play. Not only did that ensure the pointspread victory by snuffing
out the Panthers' drive, it also caused the final score (24-13) to
sneak above the total. Tough loss for Carolina. Bad beat for those who
took the under.
Detroit at Cincinnati
Sunday, August 17
As
already mentioned, bettors will sometimes disagree as to what qualifies
as a bad beat. This makes discussing these "borderline bad beats" even
more interesting. The 'under' in the Lions/Bengals game wasn't among
the worst bad beats that we'll discuss this season and probably falls
into the borderline category. It was my toughest loss of the weekend
though and I wanted to include one of my own personal tickets. I was
enjoying a nice Sunday afternoon, as I'd already won all three of my
baseball plays. My chances of winning with Cincinnati and Detroit
'under' and completing the 4-0 sweep seemed reasonably good, as the
Lions and Bengals were involved in a defensive affair, tied 10-10 in
the fourth. With the Lions up 13-10 with six minutes remaining, at
midfield, and seemingly content to keep running on every play, things
were starting to look even better. However, just when everyone
(including the Bengals secondary) was expecting another run play, Drew Stanton
came out of nowhere with a 50 yard play-action touchdown pass. Fast
forward a few minutes and we find that the Lions, now up 20- 10, were
at third and one at the Bengals' 10 yard line. If they pick up the
first down, they most likely just take a knee on the next three plays
and run out the clock. No such luck - Stanton ran a bootleg and the
confused Bengals allowed him to walk in, untouched from 10 yards out.
So much for the sweep!
Looking Ahead
Bad
beats, by their very nature, are unpredictable. Therefore, one can't
really point to a particular game and say, "watch for a bad beat in
this one." However, it is worth mentioning that both of the above
'under' losses came with games that had closing totals of less than 37,
both of which finished with final combined scores of exactly 37. I
often discuss the importance of the number 37 in the NFL and will
re-visit that topic in this week's "Total Bias" column.