Pregame Blogs

Pregame Blogs

Videos are just the START of the conversation. Each show has a dedicated blog post with show notes, links, and pics. Plus, the host and guests continue the conversation in the comments section!

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  • Created On:
    09/07/2011 9:56 PM
  • Last Update:
    06/08/2017 10:19 AM

World Cup Opening Game Play

 

World Cup Soccer - 6001 Mexico @ 6002 South Africa

I believe that we have some value with Mexico DNB/PK in this contest as basically we can get the chance to bet in the better team with decent odds. I’m aware that there are many historical trends favoring the host team to not lose in their first game, for once I can say that Host nations have never lost an opener and have reached at least the second round of each World Cup, with six winning it. Also in the last three tournaments, the hosts have gone 10-0-2 in the group stage!

History can gave us great things however please let’s not forget that South Africa is the lowest-ranked team in the tournament and the lowest-ranked hosts in the history of the World Cup so the overall quality of the team (or the lack of it) it’s even more important than any historical trend.

The Mexicans are one of the most technical teams present in the WC as they love to keep possession of the ball. The key for their system is the movement from almost every player on the pitch and plenty of width when attacking. They made some friendly games against top notch teams like England, Netherlands and Italy and in all of those games the Mexicans showed an interesting ball movement and they created plenty of chances to score even though they failed to score if we look for their opportunities. In order to enable such offensive strategy the opponent must be patient and play a conservative game and that’s exactly what I don’t expect from South Africa in this contest.

South Africa has a lot of pressure to perform and win in front of their public and I just can’t see them to have the tactical patient to watch the Mexicans exchanging the ball in the midfield so they will try to attack the ball and obviously this will open some gaps in the back.

I understand that they are in a 12-game winning streak but most of the opponents that they faced weren’t talented teams and despite defeating recently Denmark 1-0 I remember that Denmark was without both Bendtner and Sørensen in that game and also the Danish team was still trying to adapt to the South African soil when they meet.

Mexico had two full months to prepare for the tournament (for example almost all the other teams had less time) so they will be full prepared for this contest. I’ve also read some comments about the altitude being a friendly factor for South Africa but I remember that Mexico usually plays in high altitude as well back home at the Azteca stadium so this isn’t a truly advantage factor for South Africa.

In my opinion we are getting some value with Mexico as a potential scenario of a draw won’t hurt our bankroll while I believe that Mexico has better chances to win the game.

Single Dime Play on Mexico PK @ -115 on 5 Dimes / Betus

NOTE: probably I'll have a premium play for the other game of the day, please feel free to post your thoughts, thanks and good luck for all!

 

My name is André Gomes, I’m from Portugal and I am a Professional Handicapper. My sole purpose is to constantly beat the sportsbooks by taking advantage of the evaluation errors they make. The most... Read more

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