Just a note regarding the WNBA forthcoming season:
I’ve been
working in the last days preparing the WNBA season collecting all the
data of the last 3 seasons in terms of pace factor, offensive and
defensive efficiency and rebounding factor like I did in the NBA as I
believe this will help us out in the long term.
We are dealing with a pretty specific league in which the effort is
the X factor for any team to get a win regardless their talent otherwise
last season home underdogs wouldn’t have went 12-14 SU! Also the
superstar factor is essential as down the stretch basically 90% of the
plays will be redirected for her.
With such small market to work we will see huge line movements
happening as there are some “players” who will move the lines so the
timing of my releases will suffer some variation. In some occasions I
will release some early plays just to anticipate some predictable line
movements and in others I will release late on the day, good luck.
WNBA – 605 Washington Mystics @ 606 Indiana Fever
*SINGLE Dime Play*
In my opinion we are
getting some value with the Underdog in this contest as Indiana will be
far from being at their best in this game and the oddmakers set them as
7.5 points favorites like they were last season against Washington.
At the start of the season there are several players who were
playing overseas and so they didn’t have time to rest and/or participate
in the training camps. In the Fever case this is problematic because 4
of their starters: Hoffman, Tammy Sutton-Brown, Tamika Catchings and
Katie Douglas all played in Turkey and they didn't arrive in town until
Thursday and practice until Friday. Not only these players didn’t have
time to rest and adjust to a new time zone etc etc but also they didn’t
practice with the Fever second line and so they will face some problems
in continuity and chemistry.
Meanwhile the Mystics had only one player in the same circumstances
than the Fever’ 4 starters and they will be more prepared for this
contest. They lost their best player for the season (Beard) but they
signed some veteran players most notably Katie Smith and their defensive
presence will cause some problems to Indiana. I expect Washington to
give a hell of a fight today with some chances to win outright while
this line is completely off the right value. Take Washington in here as
this line won't remain in this number for much time.