Eastern Conference

 

Atlantic Division

 

Boston Celtics - Current Line 57.5 Wins

If we look to their preseason games, it seems obvious that the Celtics are more than ready for the regular season. Rotations are set, the team is already playing at a very intense level and they are once again being a phenomenal defensive team. Their current line is at 57,5 Wins, which means the sportsbooks are expecting the Celtics to do worse this season than they did over the last two seasons. I don't see a reason for that and so, I have a strong lean in the over in here. Prediction: 61-66 Wins


Toronto Raptors - Current Line 41 Wins

Toronto has a lot of potential this season now with Hedo Turkoglu, but the lack of team chemistry was evident during the preseason. It won't be hard for them to improve this dismal record from last season, but they really need to avoid a terrible start in order to prevent some locker room conflicts with Chris Bosh and his contract situation. The line seems about right in here. Prediction: 41-46 Wins


Philadelphia 76ers - Current Line 41 Wins

The team played in the preseason in the same way they did last season, but the poor performances of Elton Brand and the lack of defensive skills of the new starting PG Louis Williams are already causing some concerns. The current line is asking them to repeat their last season's record, which can surely happen, but I don't see them doing much better than that. The line also seems to be right in here. Prediction: 38-43 Wins
 

New York Knicks - Current Line 31.5 Wins

The Knicks surprised in the preseason with their offensive struggles, which caused them to have a disastrous offensive efficiency. I don't expect any big changes of their level from this season, and so, I don't expect a major change on their regular season record either. Their current line is absolutely right. Prediction: 29-34 Wins


New Jersey Nets - Current Line 26.5 Wins

The Nets had a very poor offseason with Devin Harris struggling physically. Now that they have lost Vince Carter, I expect them to decrease their level this season, especially as the team lacks depth, especially on the frontcourt. However, the magic of Devin Harris should allow them to at least to get close to the 25 wins this season. The line also seems about right in this case. Prediction: 24-29 Wins

 


Central Division


Cleveland Cavaliers - Current Line 61 Wins

There isn't much to say about the Cavs in the preseason, as their best players barely played those games. Now with Shaq, the team continues to play at a very slow pace and it will be important for the team to be able to stabilize the frontcourt rotations, in order to avoid problems on this part of the team, especially in the defensive end. A team with Lebron has always the risk of winning at least 60 wins and even though it will be hard to repeat the great record of 66 wins last season, the Cavs should get close to that number once again this season. Prediction: 60-65 Wins
 

Detroit Pistons - Current Line 41 Wins

The Pistons were a disaster on defense during the preseason and looking at their roster, you can see why. The team has now a lot of shooters, who like to play at a high pace, while the lack of quality in the frontcourt makes them extremely vulnerable in that area. They finished last season's regular season with a 39-43 record and I don't expect them to improve this record this season. They will struggle once again and even more than last season, so I have a small lean on the under in here. Prediction: 37-42 Wins
 

Chicago Bulls - Current Line 40.5 Wins

The Bulls had to play without Derrick Rose in the preseason and they were surprisingly good, even without the number one pick of last season's draft. Now with Miller and Salmons on the roster since the beginning of the season and with a healthy Deng, I believe the Bulls have a good shot to have a good season and improve their 41-41 record from last season. Their schedule in the beginning of the season is tough, but I still believe they will most likely finish the regular season with a winning record. Small lean on the over in here. Prediction: 40-45 Wins


Indiana Pacers - Current Line 34.5 Wins

The Pacers played with the fastest pace of the whole league in the preseason and that's no surprise, considering their problems in the frontcourt. They are still struggling on defense and the spot of starting center on the team is up for grabs. I believe they will once again be competitive in most games, but down the stretch they will struggle to make defensive stops and so, they will lose the majority of the ballgames they will play. However, if Mike Dunleavy returns during the season at 100%, they will be a very dangerous team. Small lean on the over, but not strong enough to pull the trigger. Prediction:  34-39 Wins


Milwaukee Bucks - Current Line 26 Wins

The Bucks were a confusing team in the preseason, as they had a great ball movement, but still struggled to be efficient in the offense. Now without Villanueva and Sessions, the team will need Bogut and Redd to be healthy, something they haven't been able to do for a while. They won 34 games last season and that's an achievable goal for them this season, however if Bogut and Redd get injured, they will struggle big time to beat any team in the league. Strong lean on the over, but they're not reliable enough to be a play. Prediction: 28-33 Wins  

 

Southeast Division

 
Orlando Magic - Current Line 57.5 Wins

They were clearly the strongest team in the preseason, even though the rotation was pretty big and even Lewis was rested in order for the team to ready to play without him for the first 10 games of the season. They seem to be more than ready for the regular season and they are obviously a team to watch. They won 59 games last season, but they could have reached the 60 wins mark without any problem. I believe they will repeat last season's performance in the regular season or even improve their record a little bit. Lean on the over. Prediction: 59-64 Wins
 

Atlanta Hawks - Current Line 45.5 Wins

The Hawks are basically the same team from last season and they appeared in the preseason playing with the 3rd slowest pace of the league. I believe there are no reasons to doubt that they will in the same range of their last season's record of 47-35. I have a small lean on the over, but we are far from having enough edge to take the over in here. Prediction: 44-49 Wins


Washington Wizards - Current Line 41.5 Wins

They appeared in the preseason playing much better than they did last season, even though Jamison is injured. The reason for that is the fact that Arenas is at 100% and the team starts playing much better with him leading the team on the court. They have a great coach for this season, but their problems in the rebounding area are still pretty big, even though I believe they will be an underrated defensive team. The current line seems just right for them, however it's hard to make a future prediction about this team. Prediction: 40-45 Wins


Miami Heat - Current Line 39.5 Wins

Miami played at a ridiculous slow pace in the preseason "slowest in the league" and it was no surprise that neither them nor their opponents were able to reach 100 points in any of the preseason games played by Miami. The team is basically the same from last year and Dwayne Wade will have to carry the team once again on his shoulders. It'll be hard for them to do better than the 43 wins they got last season, but with Wade, you never know. The current line is a fair line for a team like the Heat. Prediction: 39-44 Wins


Charlotte Bobcats - Current Line 35.5 Wins

The Bobcats once again struggled in the offense during the preseason, with them being dead last on the A/TO ratio. The starters played a lot of times in some of the preseason games and still the Bobcats couldn't produce anything special in the offensive end. Now with Chandler instead of Okafor, I believe Charlotte will struggle even more in scoring inside the paint and they will depend from their outside shooters, who are good, but way too inconsistent. Raja Bell is already injured and the Bobcats are located on a division together with four teams with very legitimate Playoffs aspirations. It will be hard for them to repeat the 35 wins from last season, so I have a lean on the under in here. Prediction: 30-35 Wins

 

Southwest Division

 

San Antonio Spurs - Current Line 55.5 Wins

 I have several leans on this market, but none of them are even close to the value that the San Antonio Spurs line have right now and so, I'm sticking with them on a long term commitment. The line stands in 54.5 wins and basically this is the same as asking: Can the Spurs have a better season than last year? San Antonio won 54 games last season and therefore, one extra win will get them the job done for this season. Well, I have very few doubts that they will accomplish such feat!

As you remember, the Spurs didn't enjoy a strong start last season (they started the season with a 1-4 record). Manu Ginobili was sidelined with an ankle injury and Tony Parker got injured early on and suddenly the Spurs had only Tim Duncan to carry the team. Also later on the season, their head coach Greg Popovich "gave up" on some games by deciding to rest their superstars (I remember for example one game in Denver in which Parker, Ginobili and Duncan did not play).

In this off season, the Spurs front office made a terrific job in adding some key pieces to their roster. For basically nothing, the Spurs traded or signed Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess and these two players are proven veterans that will add an incredible depth to this team. And then the Spurs drafted rookie DeJuan Blair, who has already showed during the preseason that the Spurs got a steal with his selection. Their starting lineup will probably be Parker, Mason, Jefferson, McDyess and Duncan - a pretty solid lineup. Then a healthy Manu Ginobili will be their 6th man and he will surely be involved in the best 6th man award later on the season. Besides Ginobili, the Spurs bench has also sophomore George Hill, Michael Finley, Matt Bonner, Dejuan Blair and Theo Ratliff and so, the Spurs have one of the most complete and deepest roster in the league.

Yes, they are a pretty veteran team, but if you look to their schedule, you will notice that they will only have 17 back to back games through the season (by the way the Bobcats, Pistons and the Bulls will have 23 B2B games!) and so, they have a 'friendly' schedule. Of their 17 back to back games, they will probably be the underdogs in just 6 games (on the road against Portland x2, New Orleans, Orlando and Denver) and even in front of a bad spot, the Spurs will have legit chances to win those games. Plus the Spurs will play at home in 14 of their first 20 games and so don't be surprised if they start the season on a strong way.

I expect the Spurs to be in the same level of the Lakers, Celtics, Cavaliers and Orlando this season and so, I naturally see value in taking the over in here. My prediction is for the Spurs to end the season with a 57-62 record.

Single Dime Play on San Antonio Spurs Over 54.5 Wins



Dallas Mavericks - Current Line 48.5 Wins

Dallas clearly wants to play at a faster pace this season and they have managed to do it during the preseason, even though they are currently playing without Josh Howard. Now with Shawn Marion, Drew Gooden and Tim Thomas on the roster, the team has great depth and I don't see why they can't repeat at least the 50 wins mark they've reached last season. Lean on the over. Prediction: 49-54 Wins


New Orleans Hornets - Current Line 45 Wins

The Hornets showed in the preseason that they are completely dependent from Chris Paul in a similar way Miami is dependent from Dwayne Wade. Now with Okafor, the team has another decent option in the frontcourt, but they still lack a good enough depth to be able to have a record of a top team like the Lakers or San Antonio. Chris Paul will decide a lot of games in their favor and I believe they will once again have a record similar to last year's record of 49 wins. Correct line in here. Prediction: 45-50 Wins
 

Houston Rockets - Current Line 36.5 Wins

The Rockets have decided to step up the pace in the preseason, as they have a pretty diminished frontcourt without Yao Ming. Also with T-Mac out for an undetermined amount of time, the Rockets are expected to have a terrible season in comparison to last season, however they have great team chemistry and that's extremely important to succeed in the NBA. Also their defense is pretty good and even though they won't obviously win 50 games like last season, they are still good enough to reach the 40 wins mark. Small lean on the over. Prediction: 36-41 Wins

 
Memphis Grizzlies - Current Line 28.5 Wins

The Grizzlies have a lot of talent on their roster for this season, however with so many changes it won't be hard for them to have good team chemistry at least in the first couple of months of the regular season. They were very good on rebound margin in the preseason, but on the other side their ball movement was a disaster. I believe they will be a very inconsistent team this season, however they should be able to reach the 30 wins mark. Strong lean on the over. Prediction: 31-35 Wins



Northwest Division


Portland TrailBlazers - Current Line 53.5 Wins

Portland appeared playing on a very slow pace in the preseason, like they had done in last season's regular season. The offense is already being efficient, however they continue to struggle a bit on their defense and there are clear problems of chemistry between Andre Miller and the rest of the team. They won 54 games last season and the line is asking them to repeat such record. It's possible, but I don't think they will do better than last season, as they are still pretty vulnerable on the road. Line seems to be correct in here. Prediction: 51-56 Wins
 

Denver Nuggets - Current Line 52.5 Wins

Denver has basically the same roster from last year and that's a big advantage over their opponents, especially in the first weeks of the regular season. The rotations are already set, as we've seen in the preseason and Carmelo is already on-fire, scoring points with a tremendous easiness. I believe they should at least get close to their last year's record of 56 wins, even though teams like San Antonio will do better than they did last season. Correct line in here. Prediction: 51-56 Wins
 

Utah Jazz - Current Line 50.5 Wins

Utah appeared in a good level in the preseason, but with a surprisingly slow pace for their standards. However, the team keeps scoring a lot of points and Carlos Boozer had a phenomenal preseason, which makes us think that he will return to his form from two seasons ago. Utah won 48 games last season and with one of the strongest homecourt edges of the league, they have potential to reach the 50 wins mark without much problems. However, they struggle a lot on the road and unless they suddenly start playing very well on the road, I believe they will struggle to get close to the 55 wins mark. The current line seems to be correct. Prediction: 49-54 Wins
 

Oklahoma City Thunder - Current Line 34 Wins

The Thunder had an absolutely catastrophic preseason, where they were poor on the offense, terrible on defense and with a pathetic ball movement. They have a lot of potential, but their struggles were more than evident in the preseason. Curiously they played on a very slow pace, which doesn't seem to be the best tactic for them. The Thunder had 23 wins last season and they have potential to do much better than that this season. However, their defensive and rebounding struggles will be more than evident during the whole season and I believe they will improve, but not as much as some people think. The line seems to be correct. Prediction: 32-37 Wins.


Minnesota Timberwolves - Current Line 25 Wins

The Wolves had a weird preseason, especially when they had to play without Love and Jefferson, their two starters in the frontcourt. They showed some struggles on defense and ball movement, something which will continue to happen during the whole regular season. Flynn and Sessions are good guards, but the team lacks depth and the disparity of talent between the players that constitute the roster of this team is huge. The Wolves won 24 games last season and I expect them to have a similar season, maybe winning one more game or two. I completely agree with the current line. Prediction: 24-28 Wins

 

Pacific Division

 
Los Angeles Lakers - Current Line 62 Wins

The Lakers have already shown in the preseason that they continue to be a great team, with Ron Artest showing already some chemistry with his team mates. Pau Gasol is injured, but the bench has great depth, as it was shown in some preseason games. The Lakers won 65 games last season and I don't see any reason for them to drop their level this season. It's almost impossible to improve such phenomenal record, but their record this season should be at least close to last season's record and so the sportsbooks have the set the line in the correct spot. Prediction: 62-66 Wins
 

Phoenix Suns - Current Line 40.5 Wins

Phoenix showed in the preseason that their defense continues to be absolutely terrible and their inability to get rebounds is absolutely ridiculous for a supposedly top team. The Suns will have to rely on Amare, Nash and Hill, as the rest of the roster is simply not good enough to carry the team to a good record. Considering the age of Nash and Hill, the Suns are a lock to struggle this season at least in some parts of the season. They won 48 games last season and I believe they lack the quality to repeat such record. They should reach the 40 wins mark, but more than a marginal winning season is simply not possible. Prediction: 40-45 Wins


Los Angeles Clippers - Current Line 35 Wins

The Clippers were one of the biggest surprises of the preseason due to their fantastic team chemistry and ball movement, something they lacked last season. The main reason for such improvement is the individual improvement of Baron Davis, who finally looked like the player he was at Golden State. The Clippers have great depth on every position and they should have no problems in getting at least close to the 40 wins mark, much better than the 19-63 record they had last season! Strong lean on the over. Prediction: 37-42 Wins


Golden State Warriors - Current Line 34.5 Wins

The Warriors were the typical run and gun team in the preseason, with a lot of points scored, terrible defense and a ridiculous rebound margin. The team showed a reasonable ball movement, but their lack of frontcourt options was more than evident. They won just 29 games last season, while having a horrible road record and I believe they have conditions to slightly improve their record this season. However the whole situation with Stephen Jackson may destroy the team's chemistry. The line seems to be about right where it is right now. Prediction: 32-37 Wins


Sacramento Kings - Current Line 25 Wins

Sacramento was extremely inconsistent during the preseason, alternating good performances with catastrophic ones. The team seems to be playing at a very slow pace and they have conditions to slightly improve their last season's record of 17-65. Kevin Martin is back at 100%, Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes have one more year of experience and Tyreke Evans is a very good player. I believe they will reach the 20 wins mark and maybe even the 25 wins mark, but more than that it is simply not possible on a division with four teams way better than them. Correct line in here. Prediction: 21-26 Wins