Pace: 95.4 (18th of 30)
Offense: 103.3 (20th of
Defense: 103.6 (12th of 30)
(28th of 30)
Offense: 106.2 (11th of 30)
Defense: 105.3 (18th of
This is a home-home series as both teams have played against each
other last Saturday and so it’s crucial for our analysis to understand what
happened in that game and in what this contest will be different.
Bucks have defeated the Heat 95-84 and at the break they were already leading
56-38 so we can say that they didn’t have any problem to beat Miami. I was
expecting such outcome as I had a play with the Bucks and in my write up I said
the following: “Even though it was an easy game [against the Pistons], the Heat
didn’t have good news after the game, as PG Mario Chalmers got injured in the
game and he is doubtful for tonight and even Wade and O’Neal are banged up for
The letdown happened for the Heat as they ended the
game by shooting only 37.2% from the field and 6-22 behind the arc – only 27.3%.
Dwayne’s Wade 6-20 (.300) shooting performance was his second worst of the
season. To make things even worse, Wade was in foul trouble, picking up his
fifth foul midway through the third quarter and going to the bench until
returning with 7:22 remaining in the game. Miami has been a terrible team in
back to backs as their offense simply disappears. Note that Wade is shooting
43.1% FG in b2b games vs. 46.6% for the season or/and Jermaine O’Neal is
shooting 48.0% FG in b2b games vs. 54% for the season.
Bottom line, a
relatively poor defensive team of the Bucks was able to hold the Heat to just 84
points and even after the game rookie Brandon Jennings praised the team
defensive performance: ``I guess we got the `D-Wade stopper' on the team right
now,'' – He was talking about Charlie Bell.
However let’s see if the
Bucks will be able to stop the Heat tonight as they have a better spot and
usually they are a terrific offensive team coming of a loss. I remember that the
Over is 8-1 in the Heat last 9 games following a SU loss of more than 10
points. Dwayne Wade will be fired up tonight and even Michael Beasley might
return to the court. The Bucks are a team that can score with some ease as they
have a nice bench in Luke Ridnour, Ersan Ilyasova, Hakim Warrick or Jerry
Stackhouse and if their starters aren’t performing well, Scott Skiles won’t
hesitate in sending them to the bench. Bogut is on an offensive roll and the
Heat will have some problems to stop him as well.
My projected line for
this contest is a range of 192-195 points and in my opinion we have the proper
edge to take the Over in here as my Single Dime Play.
units (Single Dime Play) on Over 189