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  • Created On:
    09/07/2011 9:56 PM
  • Last Update:
    05/09/2024 7:02 PM

NBA 02/01 Bucks/Heat Analysis and Play

Pace: 95.4 (18th of 30)
Offense: 103.3 (20th of 30)
Defense: 103.6 (12th of 30)

Pace: 91.5 (28th of 30)
Offense: 106.2 (11th of 30)
Defense: 105.3 (18th of 30)

This is a home-home series as both teams have played against each other last Saturday and so it’s crucial for our analysis to understand what happened in that game and in what this contest will be different.

The Bucks have defeated the Heat 95-84 and at the break they were already leading 56-38 so we can say that they didn’t have any problem to beat Miami. I was expecting such outcome as I had a play with the Bucks and in my write up I said the following: “Even though it was an easy game [against the Pistons], the Heat didn’t have good news after the game, as PG Mario Chalmers got injured in the game and he is doubtful for tonight and even Wade and O’Neal are banged up for tonight’s contest.”

The letdown happened for the Heat as they ended the game by shooting only 37.2% from the field and 6-22 behind the arc – only 27.3%. Dwayne’s Wade 6-20 (.300) shooting performance was his second worst of the season. To make things even worse, Wade was in foul trouble, picking up his fifth foul midway through the third quarter and going to the bench until returning with 7:22 remaining in the game. Miami has been a terrible team in back to backs as their offense simply disappears. Note that Wade is shooting 43.1% FG in b2b games vs. 46.6% for the season or/and Jermaine O’Neal is shooting 48.0% FG in b2b games vs. 54% for the season.

Bottom line, a relatively poor defensive team of the Bucks was able to hold the Heat to just 84 points and even after the game rookie Brandon Jennings praised the team defensive performance: ``I guess we got the `D-Wade stopper' on the team right now,'' – He was talking about Charlie Bell.

However let’s see if the Bucks will be able to stop the Heat tonight as they have a better spot and usually they are a terrific offensive team coming of a loss. I remember that the   Over is 8-1 in the Heat last 9 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Dwayne Wade will be fired up tonight and even Michael Beasley might return to the court. The Bucks are a team that can score with some ease as they have a nice bench in Luke Ridnour, Ersan Ilyasova, Hakim Warrick or Jerry Stackhouse and if their starters aren’t performing well, Scott Skiles won’t hesitate in sending them to the bench. Bogut is on an offensive roll and the Heat will have some problems to stop him as well.

My projected line for this contest is a range of 192-195 points and in my opinion we have the proper edge to take the Over in here as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 189

My name is André Gomes, I’m from Portugal and I am a Professional Handicapper. My sole purpose is to constantly beat the sportsbooks by taking advantage of the evaluation errors they make. It is most... Read more

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