Toronto
Pace: 96.0 (14th of 30)
Offense: 108.2 (4th of 30)
Defense: 109.3 (30th of 30)
NY Knicks
Pace: 97.5 (9th of 30)
Offense: 103.7 (17th of 30)
Defense: 105.7 (19th of 30)
These two teams are coming from high scoring affairs as of late and
naturally that the oddmakers were forced to adjust the totals line up
from the original stand point. Note that two weeks ago these two teams
faced each other and the line was 210/211 points, so we are getting
more 7/8 points tonight and I’m taking advantage of it.
The Raptors played last night against the Heat at home and both
Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani enjoyed huge offensive games by
combining 24-41 from the field, while playing 39 and 37 minutes
respectively. The Raptors as a team shot 56.8% from the field, scored
50 points in the paint and 20 fast break points. It was a huge
offensive night for them! The problem is that they have to play a back
to back tonight and an offensive letdown will certainly happen. The
Raptors are 1-8 ATS in b2b games because: they can’t be efficient on
the offense end while their interior defense and effort is at least
“questionable”. For example, note that Andrea Bargnani is shooting only
40.1% from the field in b2b night’s versus 47.5% for the season.
I wouldn’t take the Under involving the Raptors in a b2b spot if it
wasn’t against the Knicks because the style of play of the Knicks
really doesn’t take advantage from the Raptors biggest weakness:
interior defense! The Knicks relies their game in shooting 3pts instead
of feeding the low post game. They are coming from a huge blowout win
against the Wolves by 27 points in a game, in which they attempted 40
treys! 43% of their shots were behind the arc! After such offensive
explosion, I expect the Knicks to keep this style of play and naturally
that the Raptors defense will be thankful of that.
Even though this series has been a high scoring series, don’t think
that we are dealing with prototypical run and gun games, no way!!! I’ve
tracked the first game of this series and it was far from being a fast
paced game! Note that the Raptors shot 53.4% from the field, 12-22
3pts, 22-31 FT’s and have committed only 12 turnovers and still…they
scored “only” 112 points. If that game was a run and gun game, the
Raptors would have scored +125 points!
My projected line in this contest is 213/215 points and we have a
play in here due to the false public perception that pushed the line
“off the correct number”. Take the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 218