This is my play for the Australian Open final between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal.

The matches between these two players are always instant classics and this will be another one.

Australian Open - Roger Federer (SWI) vs Rafael Nadal (ESP)

Luckily for everybody who is a tennis fan, the dream final will happen in this tournament and once again, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal will face each other in order to see who wins the 2009 edition of the Australian Open. If Federer wins, it will be his 4th win, while if Nadal wins, it will be his first win Down Under. This is always an exciting matchup, considering Federer is one of the best offensive players ever, while Nadal is one of the best defensive players ever, so everytime these two players face each other, we watch some awesome tennis and today's match should be no exception. I have to confess I had a big lean on Nadal to win this match before studying the game, but now after studying hard everything around this match, I think it will be Federer to win the match and equal Pete Sampras with 14 Grand Slam wins.

I'll explain why. First of all, this match will be played on hardcourt, a surface where Nadal has never won a Grand Slam. In fact, just 7 of the 31 tournaments won in Nadal's career until now were on hardcourt (6 outdoor + 1 indoor), which is a low number, considering Nadal has played 49% of his matches on this surface! The reason is simple: Nadal gets more exposed on hardcourt than in any other surface. In fact, the Spanish player has lost on hardcourt since the 2008 season to Mikhail Youzhny, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Andreas Seppi, Andy Roddick, Novak Djokovic (x2), Nikolay Davydenko (x2), Andy Murray (x2), Gilles Simon and Gael Monfils. This means 12 of the last 13 defeats of Nadal have happened on hardcourt, which shows how the Spanish player watches his game getting more exposed on this surface. In fact, these 9 players who have defeated him since the 2008 season have two things in common: power and consistence. That's the key to beat Nadal on hardcourt: hit the ball with aggression, but with a controlled aggression, always looking to keep the consistence rate at high levels, so Nadal can't win cheap points with stupid unforced errors. And when that doesn't happen, Nadal watches his lack of offensive weapons exposed and can't do nothing but expect that his opponent starts getting more inconsistent as the time of the match goes by. And looking at how Federer is playing right now, I don't think this is going to happen today.

Roger Federer has indeed lost his last 4 matches against Rafael Nadal and especially two Grand Slam finals in a row. But then, we all know of how much Federer struggled last season with mononucleosis and how it prevent him for having a good preseason, which is always necessary for a great season. In fact, Federer seems to be playing once again at pre-2008 level, which means unbeatable outside clay. He had a major struggle against Tomas Berdych in the fourth round, but we are talking about a super talented player who if he had brains could be in the mix between Federer and Nadal right now with his superb game for hardcourt. After his tight affair with Berdych, Federer demolished Del Potro (6:3 6:0 6:0) and Roddick (6:2 7:5 7:5) with two amazing performances, which surely game him the confidence he really needs to face Nadal at his best level. One of the things that makes me like Federer in here is that he was tested. He faced Andreas Seppi, Evgeny Korolev, Marat Safin, Tomas Berdych, Juan Martin Del Potro and Andy Roddick in the road to the final. That's probably the hardest road I've seen someone have to get to a Grand Slam in a while and Federer played some great tennis to get into the final. This was what Federer probably lacked in Wimbledon last season, as he didn't drop a single set during his way onto the final and his draw was fairly easy. Marc Gicquel in the third round and Marat Safin on a Grand Slam semi final won't give you the necessary practice to face Nadal in a Grand Slam final. However, facing a red hot Andy Roddick in the semi finals, who was coming from a spanking over Novak Djokovic surely helped Federer to get into the zone and it will surely help him to play at his best tomorrow.

Rafael Nadal wasn't tested at all until his quarter final match against Gilles Simon and even at this match, he wasn't tested the whole time. In fact, facing a pusher like Gilles Simon won't surely help Nadal into facing Federer today, as the style of play is basically the opposite. Then, Nadal faced his friend Verdasco in the semi finals and maybe he was tested too much on that match. Verdasco used his serve and forehand to punish Nadal the whole match and that's basically what Federer will do tomorrow against him, but with a much better backhand, a killer slice, with better match tactics and a lot more consistence and experience to play the most important points of the match. In fact, matchup wise, Federer gets a big edge over Nadal a fast paced hardcourt surface like this one. Actually, it will be the first time Federer will face Nadal on a fast outdoor surface, as Miami and Dubai are slow hardcourt surfaces and where Nadal was able to reach most balls from Federer and be extremely competitive, while winning 2 of the 3 matches played on outdoor hard. On a fast hardcourt surface, Federer will be able to use his forehand more to get more winners and he will also be able to get into the net to finish the points quickly. That's what Federer sometimes lacks against Nadal. The opportunity of coming to the net in a nice position, without fearing the deathly passing shots from the Spanish warrior. Another thing which will be in Federer's advantage is how greatly Federer is returning serve in the second week of the tournament. Federer is coming from facing two big servers and still he broke Del Potro 7 times and Roddick 4 times. Now he will face a tricky left handed serve, but Federer has been showing in the recent past that he is getting more comfortable with left handed's serves and his win over Verdasco in Kooyong, in the week before this tournament has surely helped him in improving even more in how to return the tricky left handed serve with tons of slice, like Nadal and Verdasco love to do.

Obviously, there is the mental edge that Nadal has over Federer, but I don't think it will be that evident today, as they have never faced each other on hardcourt in a Grand Slam, so I don't think Federer will struggle as much as he would if this match was at Roland Garros or at Wimbledon. The Australian Open is still Federer's territory, he has never lost a final in here and while Nadal will be playing his first final in this tournament and I wouldn't be surprised if he does a little bit more errors than usual for his standards. Federer is coming to this match with a lot of revenge, as this will be his first match against Nadal after his two losses against him in the finals of Roland Garros and Wimbledon and this is the perfect spot for Federer get revenge in here.

In terms of value, I don't think Federer to win has a lot of value honestly. However, I've found a great bet, which has a lot of value. Looking at the history of the matches between these two players, I would say that if this match goes to a 5th set, Nadal will most probably steal a win from Federer once again. So, I'm taking Federer to cover a (-1,5 Sets) handicap, which basically means Federer to win 3-0 or Federer to win 3-1. Nadal may grab a set (most likely the 2nd or 3rd set), but Federer should be too good for Nadal, who is yet to reach his clay and grass level on hardcourt and who is yet to show that he is a worthy Grand Slam winner on hardcourt. Take Federer to win his 14th Grand Slam today by allowing Nadal to win just 1 set or not a single one.

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime Play) on Roger Federer (-1,5 Sets) @2.14 on 10Bet