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    09/07/2011 9:56 PM
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Andre Gomes - Western Conference Playoffs Preview

 

LAKERS   VS  DENVER

 

The Lakers finished the regular season with the top seed in the West and so, they will face the 8th seed Denver in the first round of the playoffs. Bynum won't probably play during this series and I actually doubt he will play again this season. It is rare to find a difference of seven games between the 1st and the 8th in a conference, but this has happened in this wild Western conference this season. However and even though, this difference of records being so short between the two teams, the Lakers have won all three games they played against Denver in the regular season. Actually this is the only series in the West this season where a team has done the sweep to the other during the regular season.

 

The Lakers have won all their games against Denver and naturally they will enter this series with momentum. The team have won their last three western clashes in the regular season against Dallas, Hornets and Spurs and so, they are coming to this series with a lot of confidence. Denver on the other side won a tough battle with the Warriors for the last spot in the playoffs and they were capable to win their decisive games down the stretch. However, it's defense which wins championships and Denver can't defend.

 

Allen Iverson is a player used to this kind of games and he may be as dangerous as Kobe Bryant and I actually believe Denver can win a game at LA, that wouldn't be nothing amazing, but then Denver doesn't have the necessary consistence to win all their home games in this series. Nene Hilario could be an X factor of this series with his aggressiveness on the paint, but he won't be at 100% and he won't play for many minutes during this series. If Carmelo was able to be consistent that could be a big X factor, but that's also a problem for the Nuggets. The Lakers are more consistent, they have the home advantage and they should advance to the next round.

 

 

NEW ORLEANS  VS  DALLAS

 

What it's going to happen in this series? Last season Dallas was coming to the playoffs with the top seed and with 67 wins in the regular season, they were the defending runner-ups and they had to win the championship. The pressure wasn't favorable to them and they were victims of one of the biggest upsets in the history of the NBA, losing against the Warriors in the first round of the playoffs. This season they were just 7th in the conference and they will be the underdog against the Hornets, who ended up getting the 2nd seed.

 

The odds of the bookmakers show that the Hornets are the favorites to win this series and the Mavs may be able to play with that. The Hornets have little experience at this level, however Byron Scott is an amazing coach and he is someone who has brought the Nets to the finals recently. The Hornets have almost everything to have success in the playoffs, as they have a phenomenal team, with an amazing point guard, a powerful center in the defense, a power forward who is a scorer and a small forward capable of changing a game with multiple 3pts shots in a row. The only thing that they lack is.. playoff experience. And that will be something hard for them to counter.

 

Dallas is a very experienced team in this type of games and Jason Kidd will be extremely important for the clutch moments of this series. The series between these two teams in the regular season ended 2-2, with both teams winning their matches at home. The last game between these two teams was exactly on the last day of the regular season and Dallas defeated the Hornets at home by 111-98. What I found weird is that the Hornets played with all their stars, even knowing that this game wouldn't change their position in the standings. The fact of they lost in these conditions may have created a big momentum in Dallas, something the Hornets should have wanted to avoid at any cost.

 

The edge of this series goes for Dallas in my opinion, however we can't forget that the Hornets were underrated the whole regular season and they still finished 2nd in a very competitive conference. This team is way better than most people think.

 

 

SAN ANTONIO   VS PHOENIX

 

This will be without a doubt the series with most interest in the first round of the playoffs this season, in fact we were used to see series between Phoenix and San Antonio in the previous seasons, but on the semi finals or finals of the conference, never in the first round. As there are more top teams in the West than in the previous seasons, destiny wanted to see these two teams going head to head in this phase of the playoffs and it's funny to see that the Spurs were 3rd in the conference and Phoenix 6th, when just one win separated both teams during the regular season.

 

The major difference from what will happen this season and what happened in the previous years is that the Suns have now Shaq and if there is a matchup where the Suns benefit the most to have him in the roster is exactly against the Spurs, as they have finally someone to stop Tim Duncan, who was always the major problem for the Suns in their matches against the Spurs.

 

In the regular season the Suns won this series by 3-1, being the last two games already in the Shaq era and where not only Phoenix won both matches, as they've showed how Shaq will be useful in the series against San Antonio. In fact, Tim Duncan only shot 9-21 and 6-19 FG in those games, pretty low for what he's used to do. I remember that last season in the last game of the playoffs series between these two teams, Tim Duncan shot 11-19 FG and had 13 rebounds and 9 blocks. The difference is huge between the two season, a sign that Shaq has arrived to stop him.

 

However the Spurs continue to be the Spurs, they are the champions, they have the best coach in the league in technical terms and it won't be easy to beat them. Manu Ginobili has already played in the last game of the regular season against Utah and he has proved again how he is decisive in this team, as even playing just for 19 minutes, he made 12 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists. The Spurs being a veteran team are always a team who has advantage in the playoffs, as they won't suffer from the effects of long trips, back to back games or little time to prepare the games, like it happened in the regular season. This won't happen now and that's why the Spurs are so dangerous in the post-season.

 

For the Suns to win this series, they will need to win at least one game at San Antonio. However that has happened twice in the regular season and that's a good edge and a nice motivation factor for the Suns, who will have a psychological edge over the Spurs. I predict this series to be extremely close, with a lot of aggressiveness and nothing like what happened last season, where both teams were easily reaching 110 points per game without much problems.

 

 

 

UTAH    VS   HOUSTON

 

One year has passed and we have the same playoffs series and even with the same conditions: Houston playing against Utah, having home court advantage. If last season Utah won the series, winning the game 7 at Houston, this season it looks like Utah will pass again the series, but without needing so many games as last season.

 

The scenario for this series is the following: Yao Ming is out for the season. T-Mac is limited by a shoulder injury and Rafer Alston will be out at least in the first two games of the series. This puts the Rockets in a delicate situation and it's going to be very hard for them to win a best of 7 series against a powerful team like Utah, with the players they have available right now. However there is no team in the league with more team spirit than the Rockets, who showed how much determination can win games. It's only necessary to say that most wins of their sequence of 22 wins in a row were already without Yao Ming.

 

Deron Williams has been practicing with some limitations due to a minor injury that he suffered on a game, but that won't stop him from playing certainly. In fact, Utah has all their team at 100%. Utah has won the series between the two teams in the regular season by 2-1, with the only game being already at the last week of the regular season, so that game already showed what both teams will be capable to do in this series. Utah won that game by 105-96, having reached the halftime already up by 15 points. This win was also the last home win of Utah at home, who managed to have the best home record of the league: 37-4!

 

If Utah manages to win at least one game at Houston, they will just need to win all their home matches, which won't be very hard to do. Utah is in my opinion the favorites to win the series, but if they get over confident, because of the situation of the Rockets right now, the Jazz will be risking themselves to lose this series, as the Rockets have showed that they are a bunch of warriors and they will fight for the win until the last second of every game.

 

My name is André Gomes, I’m from Portugal and I am a Professional Handicapper. My sole purpose is to constantly beat the sportsbooks by taking advantage of the evaluation errors they make. It is most... Read more

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