This season the league has a new franchise: the Thunder. The team which
used to be the Sonics won't start from the scratch, but they won't have
many expectations for this season, just like they didn't have last
season when they were still in Seattle. The reason isn't just the lack
of experience the team still lacks, but also let's not forget the
Golden State Warriors finished the regular season with a 48-34 record
and still failed to reach the postseason.
The still Sonics finished last season with a 20-62 record and what
I consider to be reasonable for the Thunder this season would be to
improve and to win 10 more games this season, as according to this logic,
the team could be a postseason contender in 3 or 4 seasons. For that it
will be essential for the young players of the team to improve as much
as it is expected and also that the team's GM Sam Presti takes the best
decisions in the next years. The Thunder will most likely have 3
players in the starting team and playing more than 30 minutes per game
with less than two seasons of NBA: Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and Russel
Westbrook. This is an immediate indicator that the team shouldn't be
pressured in obtaining immediate results, but if these young players
start gaining momentum, it will be very hard to stop this team.
Kevin Durant will be the franchise player and the go-to-guy in the
clutch moments for the Thunder. He comes from a season where he was the
rookie of the year with 20.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.4 apg and 43% FG. With
Durant's talent it will be normal that he will raise his number of
points per game this season, as he should also be able to improve his
FG %. However, as Durant will play in the SG position, it will be
important for him and for the rest of the team that he is capable of
raising his number of assists, as he will suffer double teams a lot of
times this season.
Russel Westbrook will be the future guard of the team and he will
also to be it in the present too. His amazing speed and especially the
way how he defends will make him a NBA ready player. Westbrook had a
very good Summer League with 16.4 ppg and 50% FG, which is a great
sign. However, he needs to improve his playmaker skills, as he comes
from 4.3 apg in College and this number will need to be largely
improved, so the Thunder can be competitive this season. His backup
will be the veteran Earl Watson, who started for the Sonics last season
and is a great solution for the team and will alleviate the pressure
that Westbrook will feel, if he has a bad phase during the season.
The small forward Jeff Green completes the trio of young starters
of this team. He began last season with poor numbers and finished the
season with 10.5 ppg and 4.7 rpg, nothing extraordinary for someone who
averaged 28.2 minutes per game. The good news is that Green had an
amazing month of April with 15.6 ppg and 6.3 rpg and now there is the
expectation that Green will continue this improvement this season,
which is mostly caused by a raise on his aggressiveness. The team
acquired Desmond Mason (ex-Bucks) and he will be a very good backup for
Green and besides that, this is also great news for the city, which
sees a former Oklahoma State player now playing on the city's NBA team.
The frontcourt of the team is composed by veteran players who will
prevent the Thunder to get slaughtered in this part of the field. Chris
Wilcox comes from three consecutive seasons where he had 13/14 ppg and
7 rpg. His ability to explode in the field will also be important, as
there will be a lot of space in the paint, as the opponents will be
more focused in defending the backcourt. Joe Smith will be a good
backup and if you remember last season, Smith was the most reliable
frontcourt player of the Bulls in the beginning of the season and he
would be an useful player in any roster of this league.
The center position will be with the PG one the most important of
this season, as they will be basically a jump shooting team and so it
will be fundamental for them to have the ability to win a lot of
rebounds. Nick Collison will have a very important role on this fact.
He comes from an almost double-double season (9.8 ppg and 9.4 rpg) and
look at his improvement on his career in terms of rebounds: 4.6; 5.6;
8.1 and last season 9.4!!! As backups, the Thunder will have Petro and
Swift, who won't give anything to the team but some minutes and may
pull out a decent fight for the boards, but nothing more than that.
The big challenge for the team will be to establish a good
chemistry between the players and the coach, PJ Carlesimo. If you
remember, Carlesimo was an assistant of Popovich and naturally his game
plan is based on a defensive tactic. The regular bettor who took the
over in the games of the Sonics last season got burned, because the
team ended with a 34-48 O/U record, which shows how the team tactics
wasn't understand by most people last season. The big problem is that
with these players and the addition of Westbrook to the roster, the
Thunder will need to run and use their speed as a big weapon, as we are
talking about a young team, athletic and who needs to take advantage of
that. Honestly if they play against the Spurs, Phoenix, Utah or Houston
with an half court defense and offense mentality, will the team stand a
chance to stop Duncan, Shaq, Amare, Boozer or Ming?! I don't think so
and I hope Carlesimo realizes that too.
This team has the ability to become spoilers at the end of the
season and it's likely that they will get a nice run in a certain
moment of the season, but asking more than that is simply impossible.
This young team will be very well received in Oklahoma, a city that
supported the Hornets for two seasons extremely well and which helped
them in the first season to build a nice 22-14 SU (18-16-2 ATS) record
in games played in the Ford Center in the 2005-2006 season, when the
team finished that season with an overall record of 38-44 and then in
the second season to have the same home record of 22-14 SU, but with a
remarkable 22-12-1 ATS record.
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