The next tournament on the schedule is the Farmers Insurance Open from Torrey Pines in La Jolla, Cali. The tournament is a bit unique in that it is played on 2 courses - yet 3 of the Rounds are played on 1 course. On Thursday & Friday, the players will tee it up once on each of the North and South courses - but the 2 weekend rounds are played on the South Course exclusively. The 2 courses are quite different too. The South Course is the more famous of the 2 having hosted the 2008 US Open where Tiger Woods beat Rocco Mediate in an 18 hole playoff. Not only is it more famous, it is absolutely more difficult - having played a full 2 strokes harder during the 2013 Farmers. It measures just under 7,700 yards and plays as the longest course on the PGA Tour. The North Course is one where the players have to take advantage and go low on the 1 day it is played. At over 600 yards shorter, yet still a Par 72, there is no mistaking the fact that players need to make birdies here. As we found out last week though, it seems we will not be able to take advantage of the different courses during 18h matches - as even if they are posted it seems that books will not take action on players playing 2 different courses. So we have to take that into account this weekend.
Of course - this is one of Tiger's places. Having won at Torrey 8 times - that 2.5/1 number next to his name is not a mistake. Even though he has been so successful here - I am going to play the wait n see game with him. I will take a look at his number after each round to see if the value is there. At 2.5/1 --- I just can't see making a play on him. And unfortunately 5dimes hasn't posted a W/out Woods market as of this writing. I am still holding out hope for that, but in the meantime the capping must continue. I have a few small plays on players I really like, and will be taking a good long look at the Top5/10 markets... You know -- just in case Tiger decides to break another record and win for the 9th time at this complex.
The courses aren't too tough off the tee and we are not worried about the rough this week. And with the length of the South Course, I think Driving Distance is very important (Tiger was 2nd in the field last year). The greens are pretty small, so we want guys with high Greens in Regulation percentages. And of course no matter where you play, if you putt well you are probably finishing high on the leaderboard. Of course it seems simplistic to say Hit it Far and Knock It On... But take a look at the Top 5 names in Driving Distance and GIR from the Farmers last year, and where they ultimately finished. I also added in Driving Accuracy to you can see that it finding the short stuff isn't extremely important this week.
Robert Garrigus – T6 / Tiger Woods – WON / Dustin Johnson – T51 / CH3 – T9 / Nick Watney – T4
Greens In Regulation
CH3 – T9 / Robert Garrigus – T6 / Bill Haas – T9 / Nicolas Thompson – T21 / Cameron Tringale – T27
Bryce Molder - T68 / Boo Weekley - T34 / Jin Park - T44 / Steve LeBrun - T84 / Brandt Snedeker T2
So far I only have 2 picks To Win. I am still going to wait n see about Tiger, and also am hoping for that W/Out Woods market. But for now here is what I got! (***A reminder that this week I have used 13/14 PGA Tour Stats where available. If those are not available, I have defaulted to 12/13 stats, and will state as such***)
TO WIN BETS
Keegan Bradley - 36/1 (.5 unit)
- Keegan is known as a long and straight hitter. Of course we are not as worried about the straight ball off the tee this week - but it surely can't hurt. He is 5th on my board this week with the following breakdown: Strokes Gained Putting (5th), Driving Distance (22nd) and Greens In Regulation (73rd). He has 2 Top 25s at this event in the last 3 years, and 3 Top 18s in his last 4 tournaments overall. A proven winner, Keegan should be able to take advantage of his length off the tee at Torrey.
Hunter Mahan - 42/1 (.5 unit)
- Hunter doesn't hit it as long as I would like (73rd on Tour last year in Driving Distance), but he hits a ton of greens (25th) and is a fantastic putter (27th). Hunter has a great track record at Torrey with a Course Form of 15,6,6,27,11 over his last 5 years. He has not teed it up in a little while, but does own a Recent Form of 13,12 his last 2 times out. We have another proven winner here with Hunter - and I think that's what it is going to take in order to grab a title away from Tiger on one of his courses.
It's a little weird this week with not having a lot of To Win selections... but I really feel that to put a lot of money in play against Tiger right now is silly. The likelihood is that he wins, as he just owns this place. But I'd really like to see him tread water during Round 1 and be able to grab him for a couple units more along 5/1 odds. I am also anxiously awaiting the Top 5/10 market, as the list of players I like this week is long. I already have Walker, Matsuyama, CH3, and Pretty Ricky circled as 'must play' in those markets. Hopefully with Tiger being included the great value we are seeing in these Outright picks follows into other markets. And we also may get that W/Out Woods market --- but I am not counting on it.
So that's it for now. Stay tuned as I know there will be some more action in here as those other markets get posted. Obviously we have 72h and 18h plays coming, but I don't think To Win or Place bets are done yet!
Good luck everyone! Get that Money!