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Churchill Downs — June 28, 2025 (Weinberg Analysis)
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Race 1 — 5f, 2YO, MSW $120k
Key analysis
• All but one are first-time starters — must rely on works & breeding.
• Strong final works suggest late punch and mental readiness.
Main win contenders
• #6 Track Legend (3-1)
• $550k purchase.
• 46.2 bullet work on June 18 at Churchill — fastest of 51.
• Lukas sometimes slow with 2YO, but this colt has big early foot and finishes workouts strongly.
• #4 I C Light (7-2)
• 46.4 work, consistent foundation.
• Casse has 19% 2YO win rate — fits well.
• #8 Papa Ken (4-1)
• Sharp works at Keeneland, strong gate drills, Asmussen + Ortiz Jr.
Longshot value
• #2 The Standard: Good foundation, solid slow-building drills, but needs perfect trip.
Weinberg closing note
Key last work signals: #6 and #4 both finish drills with energy. Slight edge to #6.
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Race 2 — 1?m Turf, MSW
Key analysis
• Horses like #3 Sardis and #9 Bourbon Society have already shown closing style in actual races.
Main win contenders
• #3 Sardis (3-1)
• Last turf runs: powerful stretch runs; moves up 3-4 lengths late.
• Strong final 3/16 splits in 23s — best in field.
• #9 Bourbon Society (7-2)
• Always forwardly placed, then digs in late.
• Fast internal fractions, can sustain pace.
Longshot value
• #6 Ambition: Good energy in last race, needs more forward position.
Weinberg closing note
#3 Sardis has the best combination of sustained closing fractions and class. #9 can cling to exacta.
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Race 3 — 1?m OC $125k/N1X
Key analysis
• Distance challenges most. Need strong final eighth-mile abilities.
Main win contenders
• #5 Excite (5-2)
• Consistent final quarters under 24.3.
• Strong stamina and able to pass.
• #3 Up to No Good (6-1)
• Finishes steadily; always gains final 1-2 lengths.
Longshot value
• #4 Shangrala Road: Can sneak into tris if pace collapses.
Weinberg closing note
#5 looks slightly stronger on paper; #3 ideal underneath.
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Race 4 — 1?m OC $80k
Key analysis
• #6 Chasing Time is the best finisher, can grind late.
Main win contenders
• #6 Chasing Time (3-1)
• Late moves: consistently gaining positions final 3/16.
• #3 Classic Car Wash (5-1)
• Tactical speed, can save ground, finish.
Longshot value
• #2 El Magnifico (8-1): Closer profile; can surprise if pace meltdown.
Weinberg closing note
If pace is fast, #6 wins from behind.
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Race 5 — 7f MSW
Key analysis
• Focus on workouts and final 1/8 kick in drills.
Main win contenders
• #2 Honest Al (5-2)
• Strong 47 work and final push.
• #5 Protege (4-1)
• Steady foundation, improving last drills.
Longshot value
• #3 Summonyourcourage: Closing type, can crash exotics.
Weinberg closing note
Speed may collapse; #2 sits ideal trip.
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Race 6 — 1m Turf MSW
Key analysis
• Many coming from maiden turf preps.
Main win contenders
• #4 Crimsonite (3-1)
• Fast final quarters turf, moves in last 1/8 consistently.
• #8 Violet Irene (5-1)
• Always moves forward late.
Longshot value
• #7 Pretty in a Dress: Could pop if pace meltdown.
Weinberg closing note
Key strong final fraction: #4 edges slightly.
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Race 7 — 1 1/16m G2 Stakes
Key analysis
• High-class fillies with strong closing kicks.
Main win contenders
• #5 Taxed (3-1)
• Big late punch; best final 3/16.
• #3 Save Time (5-2)
• Consistent stalker, very game.
Longshot value
• #1 Royal Spa: If ground saves, can hold on for piece.
Weinberg closing note
Best final 1/8 mile: #5.
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Race 8 — 1m OC $100k
Key analysis
• Favor closers with sustained drives.
Main win contenders
• #3 Fixin to Bee (5-2)
• Strong final eighth.
• #5 Princess Attitude (4-1)
• Tactical gear.
Longshot value
• #2 Love You Anyway.
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Race 9 — 1?m G3
Key analysis
• Pace melts possible; look for stamina.
Main win contenders
• #3 Otto the Conqueror (3-1)
• Best final 3/16 in field.
• #5 Red Flag (7-2)
Longshot value
• #6 Dr. Venkman.
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Race 10 — 1?m Turf G2
Key analysis
• True closers dominate here.
Main win contenders
• #3 Event Detail (5-2)
• Strong finishing style.
• #4 Fort Washington (3-1)
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Race 11 — 1¼m G1 (Stephen Foster)
Key analysis
• Best closing fraction horse on card.
Main win contenders
• #5 First Mission (5-2)
• Monster final 3/16, loves Churchill.
• #3 Sierra Leone (3-1)
Longshot value
• #1 Hit Show.
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Race 12 — 1m Turf MSW
Key analysis
• Even field, slow early pace possible.
Main win contenders
• #7 Reagan’s Wit (4-1)
• Most reliable late surge.
• #2 Native Runner (3-1)
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Key day summary (Weinberg “best of”)
Best win bets
• Race 2: #3 Sardis
• Race 11: #5 First Mission
Top key for exotics
• Race 1: #6 Track Legend
Best longshot bombs
• Race 4: #2 El Magnifico
• Race 9: #6 Dr. Venkman