Dave Essler Cashes Big: Keith Mitchell Hits at 45-1 as First Round Leader
Truist Championship Victory Recap | Pregame.com Analysis Expansion
A 45-1 Longshot Turns Gold
Golf analyst Dave Essler delivered a stunning win with his First Round Leader (FRL) pick at the Truist Championship: Keith Mitchell, priced at 45 to 1, led after Day 1, making Essler’s prediction a resounding success. This was more than a lucky strike—it was the result of targeted analysis, performance trends, and course strategy, all based on insights Dave shared in his original breakdown.
How Dave Called It
"He's playing too well not to... I don’t think he can win, but if he can putt well, he can go low." – Dave Essler
In his initial forecast, Dave emphasized:
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Mitchell’s recent form: 12th at Valero, 2nd at Punta Cana.
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FedEx Cup ranking pressure (around 70th) in a top-70 cut year.
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Course suitability: shorter layout allows him to contend without overpowering length.
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Crucial caveat: “If the putter gets hot.” It did.
Mitchell executed exactly that formula on Thursday—going low early and holding the clubhouse lead. Dave’s read on putting volatility and urgency due to the new playoff format proved prophetic.
Strategic Value Betting: Why 45-1 Mattered
This win isn't just a number. It reflects elite value-betting practice:
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Low risk, high reward: $100 stake returned $4,500.
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Dave identified Mitchell not as a tournament winner, but perfect for a hot round, particularly in Round 1.
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Capitalizing on public market hesitation around mid-tier players paid off.
What This Means for Pregame Nation
A 45-1 hit is cause for celebration. For those who tailed Dave:
This win highlights how smart, well-articulated golf insights—shared publicly before tee-off—can deliver serious profits.
Revisit the Winning Analysis
Want to relive the moment? Check out Dave’s original logic and all the FRL picks here:
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Keith Mitchell (
45 to 1) — WINNER
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Tommy Fleetwood (30 to 1)
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Denny McCarthy (45 to 1)
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Justin Thomas (25 to 1, from Sleepy J)
Final Word: “You Don’t Need to Win the Tournament... Just Thursday”
Dave’s core message reminds us: betting edges live in niche markets like FRL, especially when player metrics and narrative align. Keith Mitchell didn't need four great rounds—he just needed one. And Dave nailed it.
Here’s to more Thursdays like this one.