CJ Cup Byron Nelson Picks – Podcast Summary

Speaker: Will Docter
Podcast Title: Golf Preview Podcast on Pregame’s Network
Location & Timing: Live from TPC Craig Ranch, McKinney, Texas
Timestamps: (0:16 – 39:12)

1. Opening Context and Setting

Timestamps: 0:16 – 0:41

Will Docter introduces the podcast from TPC Craig Ranch amidst heavy rain, which significantly influences his course preview. He was evacuated from the media center and relocated to a Lifetime Fitness nearby to record. The field this week is “top heavy” with major Dallas-area stars participating.

2. Tournament Conditions and Course Setup

Timestamps: 0:41 – 4:00

• Course: TPC Craig Ranch is described as one of the easiest on the PGA Tour, featuring wide fairways (8th widest on tour), and little challenge off the tee except distance.

• Changes:

  • Fairways changed from zoysia to ryegrass.

  • Rough is longer early in the week but expected to be cut by Thursday.

  • Wet conditions will eliminate rollout and increase the importance of carry distance.

• Strategy: Emphasis on players who are:

  • Long hitters (bombers)

  • Elite long iron players

  • Above average around the greens

  • Able to go low in scoring – 30 under par may be needed to win.

3. Previous Week Recap – Zurich Classic

Timestamps: 4:00 – 8:00

• Winners: Ben Griffin and Andrew Novak (28/1)

  • First PGA Tour win for both

  • Clutched win with a 31-ft birdie putt by Griffin on the 71st hole

• Max Graceman & Nico Echevarria:

  • Collapsed with a triple bogey in alternate shot format

  • Cost the top-20 ticket due to wayward tee shot

• Summary: +25 units last week, Dock Market now down 54.2 units for the season.

4. Player-Specific Quote Analysis and Statistical Evaluation

Scottie Scheffler

Timestamps: 8:00 – 9:45

• Stats: No finish worse than 25th this year; T2 Houston, 4th Masters, T8 Heritage

• Analysis:

  • Elite ball-striking and short game

  • Misses in smart spots; excellent iron control

  • Not worth betting pre-tournament at +305 due to better live betting value

Jordan Spieth

Timestamps: 9:45 – 11:30

• Odds: 20/1

• Recent Finishes: Three straight Top-20s

• Analysis:

  • Inconsistent iron play (excellent to horrible over recent starts)

  • Putting is strong

  • Iron inconsistency makes him too risky at this number

Sungjae Im

Timestamps: 11:30 – 12:45

• Odds: 25/1

• Recent Form: MC at Korean PGA Championship, 5th Masters, 11th Heritage

• Weaknesses:

  • Below-average iron play

  • No prior Craig Ranch experience

  • Quote: “Ball striking... does not warrant 25 to 1”

Byung Hun An (Ben Ahn)

Timestamps: 12:45 – 13:45

• Odds: 28/1

• Form: Strong history at Craig Ranch (Top-5 & Top-20)

• Issues:

  • Inconsistent driving accuracy

  • Poor recent putting

  • Needed 45/1 to consider value

Sam Burns

Timestamps: 13:45 – 14:45

• Odds: 30/1

• Strengths:

  • Solid driving

  • Elite putting

• Weakness:

  • Lost strokes on approach in 7 straight events

  • Quote: “Not a fade... but pass on outright”

Siwoo Kim

Timestamps: 14:45 – 16:30

• Odds: 33/1

• Interview Insights:

  • Working with Sean Foley

  • Resetting swing after failed experiment with driver spin

• Stats:

  • 80th in strokes gained approach

  • 123rd in putting

• Verdict: Pass at 33/1, prefers 50/1 value

Taylor Pendrith

Timestamps: 16:30 – 17:30

• Odds: 35/1

• Notes:

  • Defending champ but not in form

  • One top-5 in last seven starts

  • Poor around-the-green stats

Ben Griffin

Timestamps: 17:30 – 18:30

• Odds: 40/1

• Stats:

  • 54th in approach

  • 102nd in putting

• Critique: Below average in key stats despite Zurich win

5. Matchup Bets

Matchup: Sammy Vallamaki over Nico Echevarria
Timestamps: 18:30 – 19:30

• Vallamaki:

  • Fourth in Houston

  • 5/6 positive approach rounds recently

  • Top-10 in first round scoring

• Echevarria:

  • Great putter but poor driver & iron play recently

  • Weak chipping

• Pick: Vallamaki -105

6. Picks to Place & Outrights

Isaiah Salinda (Top 20 +280)

Timestamps: 19:30 – 21:00

• Elite driver

• Two top-15s in last 3 events

• Good putting

• Only concern: New caddy this week

Thomas Rosenmueller (Top 40 +220, Win 270/1)

Timestamps: 21:00 – 22:30

• Elite ball striking & putting last two events

• Strong Corn Ferry history

• Course fits his long driving style

Cam Davis (Win 100/1)

Timestamps: 22:30 – 24:00

• Strong recent form: 13th Heritage, 32nd Zurich

• Strengths:

  • Driving distance

  • Strong bentgrass putting history

  • Above average iron play

Sleeper: Alejandro Tosti (Top 20 +280)

Timestamps: 24:00 – 25:30

• Four Top-12 finishes recently

• Carries over 320 yards

• Weakness: Putter under pressure

7. First Round Picks

Timestamps: 25:30 – 27:00

1. Steven Jaeger

   • Top 10 After Round 1 (+400)

   • Recent strong iron play

   • Opened with 66 last year here

2. Sammy Vallamaki

   • Top 10 After Round 1 (+550)

   • 4th in first round scoring average (68.1)

   • Best current form among top-10 scorers

8. DraftKings and PGA Tour Fantasy Lineups

Timestamps: 27:00 – 28:00

DraftKings

• Scottie Scheffler ($13.3K)

• Isaiah Salinda ($7.5K)

• Sammy Vallamaki ($7.3K)

• Alejandro Tosti ($7.3K)

• Cam Davis ($7.1K)

• Thomas Rosenmueller ($6.5K)

PGATour.com

• Captain: Scottie Scheffler

• Starters: Salinda, Cam Davis, Rosenmueller

• Bench: Tosti, Vallamaki

9. Final Predictions & Best Bet

Timestamps: 28:00 – 29:00

• Winning Score: 28-under

• Best Bet: Scottie Scheffler Top USA Player (+200)

  • Excellent fit for slow, wet Craig Ranch

  • Spieth less likely to contend due to softness

Closing Thoughts

Timestamps: 39:00 – 39:12

Will Docter signs off, promising a return for coverage of the Truist Championship next week from Philadelphia Cricket Club.