Kentucky Derby 2025 Morning Workouts | DRF Clocker Report w/ Mike Welsch

No Probs Jimmy.

Kentucky Derby 2025 Morning Workouts | DRF Clocker Report w/ Mike Welsch for April 21, 2025

Japanese horses are inching their way closer and closer to winning the KD, seems more like a question of when and not if. One year after Japan's Forever Young nearly won, Luxor Cafe imo could make this year the year with probable closing odds of 8/15-1. A son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, Luxor Cafe has won four straight races.

Cafe's last race was his most impressive. In the Fukuryu Stakes on March 29, he stalked the pace, running wide the whole way, before unleashing the most awesome turn of foot of any of the Kentucky Derby hopefuls and dominating the field by five lengths. He finished the last furlong of that race in a swift 12 seconds. Without doubt, one of the fastest 3 yrs old's in this class of Derby contenders.

The question with all of the foreign horses is the quality of the fields. Whom has he been beating? But two starts ago, he won the Hyacinth Stakes in Japan. The fourth-place finisher of that race, Admire Daytona, returned to win the UAE Derby in Dubai, earning his spot in the Kentucky Derby.

A definite play in my Tri-keys. Cheers!

jimmythebull said:

Right on Capper
The Japanese ponies are knocking on the door for sure and will win soon.
Luxor Cafe is 10-1 at Bet365 and will be on my tickets.
(Actually have about 7 contenders now plus my wife’s picks)
Cheers

Same Jimmy. I had about 16 horse's in this year KD, I have 3 left. I have Journalism at 10/1, and have Tappan Street at 25/1 and Sovereignty at 20/1 and 16/1 and If any of them win I barley break even. If Journalism wins I lose.  The only hope I have is Sovereignty at 16s is in a treble with 2 football team that are already winners.

No news on Baeza, If that horse gets in, its a serious contender, If not keep your eye on him for future races. The connections really like this horse and so does Flavian Prat.

Good write up capper, always good to read about the sport I love most, giddy up to ya.

 Because Baeza has run in only one Kentucky Derby points race, he has just 37.5 Derby qualification points. As of (today) Wednesday that puts him at No. 25 on the Derby leaderboard, meaning that he needs five horses to pull out of the race to make the 20-horse field.

If Baeza were to get into the Kentucky Derby, he would be a major contender. The horse who edged him out in the Santa Anita Derby, Journalism, is the clear Derby favorite. Baeza's career-high 101 Beyer Speed Figure is second to only Journalism's career high (108) among the prospective Derby entrants.

And Baeza, a $1.2 million purchase two years ago, is bred to be a classic winner. His half-brother Mage won the Kentucky Derby two years ago, and another half-brother, Dornoch, won the Belmont and Travers Stakes last year. Cheers!

NFL Capper said:

Because Baeza has run in only one Kentucky Derby points race, he has just 37.5 Derby qualification points. As of (today) Wednesday that puts him at No. 25 on the Derby leaderboard, meaning that he needs five horses to pull out of the race to make the 20-horse field.

That is what is most intriguing about this Horse Capper. His only Derby trial run was in the Santa Anita Derby, were he came 2nd to Journalism after a long lay off, he look like winning it in the home stretch to tire at the end. Also Flavian Prat has refuse to ride in the Derby because he has stuck with this horse, If he doesn't get in Prat (one of the best jocks in USA) although better on turf has to scramble for a ride. 

Jimmy thinks money will change hands for him to get a ride and I agree, But that is a MAJOR statement for Prat to hold out for this horse to get in. And that should be taken note of for future race's. Connections think this is a top class horse, he had a few niggling problems and now they have him back.

Here he is, He is the real deal Capper, 

Meet the 2025 Kentucky Derby Winner, He just has to qualify by 5 horse getting sick and get a good draw, while breaking good and finding a good position down the back stretch and have a big turn of foot to finish with. That all.