? The Masters 2025 Winner Predictions Deep Dive
This extended summary dives into the detailed betting picks and analysis for The Masters tournament, as discussed by two handicappers—Dave Essler and Sleepy J—highlighting their insights, rationale, and statistical angles for each selected golfer.
Final Verdict
The experts believe Corey Connors, Willy Zalatoris, Russell Henley, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, and Jon Rahm offer the best value for betting at the 2025 Masters. Connors and Henley stand out for their form and history at Augusta, while Jon Rahm is viewed as a potential return-to-form powerhouse despite a less-than-ideal showing last year.
Essler leans toward data-driven picks like strokes gained leading up to the Masters, while Sleepy J balances current form, value odds, and course history, especially favoring undervalued dark horses like Henley. Both agree Rahm is a solid elite pick, especially at current odds.
Key Points
Willy Zalatoris (65-1): Picked based on the pattern that the last 13 winners gained 18+ strokes tee-to-green in their four prior events.
? Corey Connors (65-1): Ranked 2nd in strokes gained in the lead-up, strong ball striker, 5 straight top 25 finishes, 3 top 10s at Augusta.
Collin Morikawa (18-1): Excellent T10 record at Augusta, but known to falter on Sundays. Good bet for T10 at +125.
Xander Schauffele: Buy-low candidate; underperformed recently but has upside. Not a firm pick but watch closely.
Russell Henley (55-1): Strong early-season form (3 top 10s + win in last 6), reliable at Augusta (7 straight cuts, multiple top 20s).
Jon Rahm (14-1): Red-hot recent form, 4 top 10s + 1 win at Augusta, high motivation after last year's poor finish.
Stat-Based Strategy: Emphasis on strokes gained and tee-to-green performance over last 4 events pre-Masters.
Value Focus: Picks avoid top-tier names like Rory or Scottie to find strong returns on mid-tier longshots.
Bounceback Potential: Picks include players likely to rebound from recent mediocre form.
Historical Track Record at Augusta: Strong course history is a major influence in nearly all selections.
Extended Summary
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Willy Zalatoris (65-1)
Dave Essler singles out Zalatoris as a high-value longshot due to a stat tying recent winners to strong tee-to-green performance pre-Masters. Zalatoris checks this box and is acknowledged as a player with winning caliber.
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Corey Connors (65-1)
Both Essler and Sleepy J like Connors. He is second only to Scottie in strokes gained and boasts excellent Augusta form. He may be inconsistent but has a high ceiling for this price range.
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Collin Morikawa (18-1)
A strategic dual bet: outright win and top-10. While Essler doubts his Sunday performances, Morikawa has a reliable Augusta record, justifying his inclusion.
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Xander Schauffele
Not a core pick but flagged by Essler as a buy-low opportunity. Odds are favorable compared to his historical value and potential.
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Russell Henley (55-1)
Sleepy J’s dark horse pick. He brings momentum from a win and strong placements this season. His track record at Augusta (4th, 15th, 11th, 21st) bolsters his candidacy.
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Jon Rahm (14-1)
While not a surprise pick, Rahm’s strong LIV performance and Augusta history make him a high-confidence selection. Despite last year’s poor finish, Rahm is considered a rebound candidate.
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Performance Metrics
The most emphasized stat: strokes gained tee-to-green in last 4 events. All highlighted players meet or exceed this trend.
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Augusta Experience
Cuts made and past finishes at Augusta are critical. All picks (except Zalatoris, more of a form pick) have proven Augusta capability.
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Odds Analysis
The experts avoid chalky bets (e.g., Rory/Scottie) in favor of players offering higher ROI for risk, using historical and form-based metrics.
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Psychological Angles
Rahm’s motivation after a disappointing 2024 Masters is emphasized. The idea is to capture players peaking at the right time emotionally and competitively.