The Players Championship Free Pick: Christian Bezuidenhout at -105
Introduction
In this discussion, SleepyJ and Dave Essler analyze a key betting opportunity for The Players Championship, focusing on a nationality prop bet for the top African golfer. The primary contenders in this wager are Christian Bezuidenhout, Erik van Rooyen (EVR), and Aldrich Potgieter. Both analysts ultimately favor Bezuidenhout at -105, citing consistency, course suitability, and the struggles of his competitors.
Christian Bezuidenhout: The Best Choice (-105)
SleepyJ’s Analysis (0:00 - 1:27)
- Current Form Advantage: Among the three golfers, Bezuidenhout is the most consistent performer.
- Van Rooyen’s Inconsistency:
- EVR finished 9th at the Cognizant, but before that, he had seven consecutive poor tournaments.
- He has a history of strong performances followed by drastic collapses.
- SleepyJ is skeptical that one good event can erase his inconsistency.
- Potgieter’s Inexperience & Struggles:
- Struggled in windy conditions on an unfamiliar course last week.
- Never played at TPC Sawgrass, where wind could play a significant factor.
- Conclusion: Given these trends, Bezuidenhout at -105 is a strong value pick.
Dave Essler’s Analysis (1:28 - 2:20)
- Total Agreement on Bezuidenhout: Dave had discussed this with SleepyJ earlier and had already reached the same conclusion.
- Potgieter’s Flawed Performance in Mexico:
- Played well in Mexico, but errant tee shots were not penalized there.
- At TPC Sawgrass, errant tee shots cost approximately 1.5 strokes, which could hurt Potgieter significantly.
- Prediction: Potgieter will regress at Sawgrass.
- Van Rooyen’s History of Disappointments:
- Dave has bet on EVR before, only to see him collapse.
- While EVR has power off the tee, it won’t be enough at Sawgrass. Precision is key.
- Final Verdict: Dave also backs Christian Bezuidenhout at -105 as the top African golfer.
Why Bezuidenhout is the Best Pick
Consistent form compared to his competitors
TPC Sawgrass demands accuracy, where he excels
Van Rooyen’s trend of inconsistency makes him unreliable
Potgieter’s lack of experience and struggles in wind are concerns
Both analysts independently selected him as the best bet
Final Pick: Christian Bezuidenhout (-105) Over Erik van Rooyen & Aldrich Potgieter
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