This is the only play I have so far for today (other than Algeo at +108 for half unit but thats at like -120 now).
Been running cold aint not secret about it.
Here's why I like this one...
+Arlovski last win by finish was a KO in 2015. He has fought 17 fights since then. That’s like a whole 2nd career (or 3rd lol)
+Sherman doesn’t have great defense but seems to be able to still withstand a lot of damage. Have no reason to expect diminished durability yet from him.
+Arlovski taking fight on short notice so how in shape is he? He usually stays in top shape so I think it wouldn’t be an issue for him to go 3 rounds
+Arlovski’s style now is to bounce around the outside of the cage and pick his spots to attack – makes virtually no purposeful attempt to KO people anymore. Simple trying to get in and get out unscathed and earn a paycheck and stay safe
+Sherman’s UFC resume looks different than his regional resume. He has 14 KO wins and 4 KO losses in 21 total fights (85.7% finish rate). In his eight UFC fights, he’s gone the distance 3 times and was finished by Sakai with less than a minute left in the 3rd. So he was very close to going the distance in half of his UFC fights. Styles make fights and Sakai, Harris, and Abdurakhimov are much more inclined to finish their opponents than the Andrei Arlovski post 2015 version.
+Arlovski is far more inclined to dictate the pace of this fight. And he’s gone the distance in 10 of his L12. Couple that with Sherman’s durability and not being a pure one punch KO threat and I think we end up seeing the score cards. Arlovski’s last two losses were submission to Aspinal in his last fight and KO loss to Rozenstruik. Sherman is more of a volume KO fighter that he is a one punch KO guy
+Chase Sherman is a 0% submission threat. Arlovski's most recent loss was by Sub, possibly helping depress the line.
This line is still available and I feel this is a strong case for it to be -200