Wilder Vs Fury 2
Let’s break down this fight and reveal some pretty good bets. I’ll reference some of the first fight because it’s important to understand things that will take place for this rematch. Money has rushed in on the American fighter Deontay Wilder. I’m not shocked at all being Wilder had the most recent showing in his tune up fight against Luis Ortiz in November. Fury fought in September a full two months before Wilder KO’d Ortiz. I believe it’s caused some recency bias being plugged into this current betting line. Fury’s fight in September wasn’t all that energetic or showcasing. A consensus line has Wilder around a -125 favorite. Bet $125 to win $100 on Wilder who is the favorite. If you want to bet Fury the underdog, you bet $100 to win $115. Fury current underdog odds are +115 as a consensus. That’s one way to explain the line move. Another easy way to clear up this line move is when this fight was announced, odds were put up immediately after the first fight was deemed a draw. That alone had people backing Fury. Some thought he won the fight. I’m not surprised one bit that he had early money. I believe the sharper bettors are backing Wilder for this contest and the heavier more respected money has shown up throughout fight week. Some big bettors will sacrifice a slightly worse line versus having their money sit in limbo for many months.
Both fighters will look to improve off the first bout. Fury has looked to gain more power and stamina. Wilder looks to focus more on improving his poor defense and late round fatigue. The chatter in the media has Wilder as the big puncher and Fury as the better boxer. That’s 100% correct, but this isn’t a replay, this is a rematch. Both fighters will look to improve areas they lacked in the first bout. Wilder has poor defense at times and that’s why Fury looked so effective. I believe Wilder will fix that here. His defensive flaws are fixable. He tends to put his hands out in front of him to create distance when he is being punched. That works against smaller fighters, but Fury is 6’9’’ and holds a 2’’ inch height and reach advantage. That style of defense needs to change, and I believe it will for Deontay. Wilder’s other deficiency has been his lack of energy in the later rounds. Now to Wilder’s credit, he hasn’t had to go very deep in fights in his entire career. Wilder has 43 professional fights. He has 20 first round knockouts. 35 of his 43 fights ended in the 6th round or before. It’s no secret he doesn’t have a ton of late rounds in his career and he’s only gone 12 rounds twice. His training camp was focused on cardio and diminishing those defensive bad habits. Fury has some bad habits as well. His biggest trouble issue is lack of power. Now Fury will put you or I in the hospital, but Wilder is a different type of man. At 6’7’’, Wilder is built like a brick house who can take a punch. In the first bout, Fury struggled to even buzz Wilder. Wilder was never hurt or visibly shook in the first bout. The best option for Fury to bring more power was to gain more weight. Some are concerned with his weight gain, but that’s mostly people who don’t understand what weight cuts or gains do for a fighter. In this case, Fury needs more power and he needs to be able to push that power without losing his natural fast ability. Fury has put on an extra 15-20 pounds for this second fight. I’m not concerned at all with Fury fading late because of the weight gain. His stamina is about as rock solid as a heavyweight fighter can get. He tends to get stronger as the fight goes on and his cardio is some of the best in the business. Fury looked like he tired late in the last fight before he got caught by Deontay, but he was already ahead in the fight. Fury has really concentrated on getting his legs, arms, and back in bigger and better shape. Most think extra weight goes to your stomach and for most of the non-professional athletes it does. These guys are world class top of the food chain athletes. They have every trainer possible to make sure they are in the best shape possible. Fury will 100% put the extra weight in the areas that provide extra power, not extra lunches. One of the big concerns for many is the fact that Fury changed his trainer. I view that as my biggest concern because you are trained to a certain work regimen. Fury has hired Javan Steward from the Kronk Gym in Detroit. Fury knows him rather well and believes Steward can help him with his weight gain and power. Fury had a tough choice to let his last trainer Ben Davidson go because of Fury's father who didn't appreciate Fury being cut in the past under his guidance. Davidson was more concerned with keeping Fury's weight down. The group thought a new trainer was the correct way to go versus Wilder.
I believe Wilder will change more of his game plan for this bout. In the last fight his defense wasn’t all that great. His wild shots early really cost him power and energy later in the fight. Wilder also didn’t take advantage of the things Fury has a bad habit of doing in fights. Fury loves to bob and weave and move side to side naturally. Fury has a terrible habit of ducking his head down when fighters are throwing punches. Now he’s an elusive fighter, but that works best when a guy only fights you once. This is now the second look over for Wilder and I’m sure he dissected the first fight tape. Wilder will be looking for that signature head duck that Fury loves to do. If Wilder gets that picture-perfect shot, he will take it repeatedly. I don’t believe Fury can stop himself from ducking his head though. He’s a natural fighter with natural defensive instincts. Wilder is more of a purebred fighter and a natural puncher. I believe Wilder's flaws can and will be fixed. I think Fury will have a tougher time changing what comes natural to him.
The fight plan for both might look something like this. Wilder will get his range and use his jab right from the start. He wants to measure up Fury and back him up. That should create enough distance for Wilder to plan his attack without getting hit this time around early. Wilder threw a bunch of punches early in the first fight that became wild and heavy. He will be saving his big shots for the middle rounds. If Wilder improved his defense, he should be able to box early, and he might even sneak out a round or two early. That’s more than likely his ultimate goal for the first few rounds. Fury has a different plan for the early rounds. First, he will get the crowd and judges excited for this fight. He will hotdog around the ring and taught Wilder. Fury will throw a couple combos and try a few power shots. I doubt Wilder will budge much, but Fury wants to get to the later rounds with the crowd behind him. I believe Fury will be the first to really test his power and legs in the early middle rounds. Fury will look to get inside and bang away with some heavy shots. Fury is the much better fighter inside and this is the area in which Wilder shows his poorest defense. This might be the spot in which Fury lands his biggest and best shots. I believe in the early and middle rounds that Fury hopes he has Wilder touched up a little bit and behind on the scorecards by 2 or 3 rounds. I believe that might happen. Wilder wants no part of going 12 rounds again. His chances at winning slip as each round goes by. Wilder will open it up in the 6th, 7th, and 8th round. I believe these are the rounds in which this fight ends.
Although Fury is the bigger guy, Wilder has faced big fighters before. In fact, Wilder has faced two very heavy guys in the past. Wilder just fought Ortiz in his last bout and Ortiz weighed in around 236 pounds. The fight before Ortiz, Wilder fought Dominic Breazeale who weighed in at a whopping 255. You can go back and watch those fights. Both Breazeale and Ortiz buzzed Wilder when they fought. Fury couldn’t get that done against Wilder. So, the weight gain is for more power, but Wilder has seen these types before, just not as skilled as a boxer as Fury. Wilder has gained some weight as well, but I'll explain why that's not a concern at all for me.
In the 6th, 7th, and 8th rounds Fury will look to have Wilder stalk him. Fury will potshot and jab his way around the ring dancing and showboating trying to steal rounds and preserve power. That might work because Wilder is not the most accurate fighter. Wilder will certainly lose these rounds if he tries to box. Wilder won’t be boxing though; he is going to stalk Fury and look to unload his power. This is the juncture of the fight that Wilder will know if Fury has fixed ducking his head. I don’t believe Fury will have that fixed and Wilder will have the power for that right on the button shot. This time I believe Fury is down and out and he won’t be getting back up.
Fury is a world class boxer, but Wilder is a world class puncher. Wilder has the most-deadly right hand that I’ve ever seen. He always finds his guy at some point or the other. Wilder has a dominate right hand that he can knock you out without getting you flush. His first Fury knockdown in the last fight was just that. A decent shot that sent Fury to the canvas. The second shot in the 12th round was a very good shot, but it wasn’t the best punch that Wilder can throw. I guarantee you if Wilder gets his best shot off on Fury, Fury will be out cold and wondering what the hell just hit him. Wilder will find that shot in the 6th, 7th, or 8th round. The Wilder weight gain will provide that blackout power. I bet Wilder to win by KO +125.
We do have some other bets we should consider for this bout. Fury to win by points is the most logical way he wins this fight. Fury by points is +170. That’s a very good bet as well if you like Fury. Another good bet if you like Fury is to win by Unanimous Decision at +240. I can’t see Wilder winning in that fashion. If Fury avoids the knockdown, he probably wins 7 to 9 of the 12 rounds. That’ll be good enough for a unanimous scorecard. My final recommendation would be -300 Wilder to NOT be knocked down. Wilder has been in the ring with far stronger guys before and they couldn’t even put him on the canvas. Luis Ortiz could flatten almost any man, but he couldn't knock down Wilder. Fury is a great boxer and Wilder will be more defensive in this fight. Wilder has taken some shots before and displayed a very good chin. Fury doesn’t have that type of power to put Wilder on the canvas.
I watched the first fight 4 times now and took notes on that fight.
If you guys are looking for those first fight notes, stats and other info like pay-per-view, tale of the tape, odds history.
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