Results: 1-1, -0.30u
Jeremy Stephens (+115) [0.80 unit]… I got it on 5Dimes I would still take it as low as +100. -0.80u
If you like Yair, you should take him to win by decision at plus money since Stephens has only been knocked out once since 2012. Because it’s a 3 round fight I’m not inclined to take Stephens by TKO/KO here like I posted in the previously scheduled 5 round fight. I do expect Stephens to come out aggressive with urgency because being patient and cautious would just play into Rodriguez’s style. Stephen’s best chance to win a couple rounds or finish will be to press the issue and I think he’ll do that knowing he’s at a disadvantage at distance due to Rodriguez’s kicking ability. Yair has been annoyingly overrated since his lucky KO win vs Zombie. Hoping the eye poke even gave Stephens some extra motivation
Dominik Reyes (-175) [0.50 unit] +0.50u
I fell for taking James Vick last Saturday and taking Weidman here would be “making the same mistake twice”. Weidman’s brain is mush from getting KO’d. He’s super talented standing up and on the ground so I wouldn’t ever count him out. Also especially considering it’s a 5 round fight, Weidman may be able to bring Reyes into deep water if he fights very cautiously, however that’ll be tough to do against a lengthy fighter with solid kick striking in Reyes. That said, I don’t know if his head could take too many more punches. While I don’t recall seeing whether or not Reyes could take a big strike, he did survive 3 rounds in a close call win vs Oezdemir. Weidman’s best chance may be on the ground here and Reyes’ 86% takedown defense should make it difficult for Weidman to bring him down. Considering Weidman’s mush brain, I also like that Reyes is landing 5 significant strikes per min and only absorbing 2.
Hope I'm a help.