Donny's Masters Picks
Sorry guys, just got back from a long trip and need to update MLB record and get back to posting. I've had a pretty decent golf season thus far. Given I haven't posted golf I'm hoping to pick up a following throughout the year and hear others thoughts as the golf posts are limited here at Pregame. I was able to hit the Arnold Palmer with Molinari at 20/1 (bet after round 1) & Players Championship Rory 12/1. We had ooz (Oosthuizen) 40/1 in the Valspar and came up just short. Complete miss with Rose & Poulter in the Dell Technology Championship.
Obviously, golf requires a level of diversification as hitting one outright winner per tournament is basically like playing roulette. The Masters provides the absolute best opportunity to diversify with no other tournament having as many bets available pre-tournament and following each round. The Masters is the Super Bowl of golf. You'll notice, my strategy focuses on picking my top 3-5 golfers whose odds are not in line due to current form, course history or weather advantage. Mostly, I focus on tier 2&3 golfers who will be in the hunt or potentially leading after Friday and have the ability to win. But, will allow for tier 1 (DJ, Rory, etc...) players to be bought back at better odds heading into Saturdays round. The goal is to have guys in contention and buy the elite tier at a discounted price so that you have multiple shots to finish come Sunday. The master allows the best opportunity to not only win through 'odds to win' but also through top 5, 10 & 20 finishes which allows our hedges to be profitable.
One thing I can share about the Masters is that experience matters. Fade, follow, mix n' match just enjoy this weekend cause there's nothing like amen corner and the pine straw.
Weather
Be Advised - rain is in the forecast all weekend but the main advantage will occur for early Thursday golfers who have the Friday afternoon round. The golfers who tee off late Thursday (big names included) will have a more difficult Friday morning round as the forecast currently sits. If weather persists - the European golfers have an advantage playing through these conditions more often (Rory, Fleetwood, Poulter, etc...) Based on Augusta track record, weather forecasts and course drainage system no foreseen issues for weekend play. Most golfers will be separated by Saturday and the pairings will face similar conditions.
Picks to Win Outright
Fleetwood (30/1) .5 to win 15units (playing at an elite level just having issues closing on Sunday - Expect a top 5 finish)
Kuchar (40/1) .25 to win 10units (two top 5 finishes and knows this course. Will not make mistakes and will hang around)
Bubba Watson (30/1) .5 to win 15units (Has won the event, lefty with a fade to cut every corner) Course is made for him. Boom or Bust...
Sergio Garcia (45/1) .25 to win 11.25units (Had Sergio in contention when he had a 13 on no. 15) Won't happen again he knows this course LOSS (-.25units)
Marc Leishman (45/1) .25 to win 11.25units (Not coming in with the best form but this guy could easily be top 10 heading into the weekend and worth a flyer at the price. Plays this course well
Top 5 Finisher
Fleetwood (4.5/1) .5 to win 2.25units
Sergio Garcia (9/1) .25 to win 2.25units
Kuchar (7/1) .5 to win 3.5units
Watson (6/1) .5 to win 3units
Top 10 Finisher
Fleetwood (2.1/1) 1 to win 2.1units
Kuchar (2.8/1) .5 to win 1.4units
Watson (2.6/1) .5 to win 1.3units
Players v Field
Bubba Watson to place 22nd/better 1.1 to win 1unit
Tournament Match-ups (Pinpoint one golfer to fade per tourney)
Molinari +103 v Spieth 1 to win 1.03units
Fleetwood -118 v Spieth 1.18 to win 1unit
Augusta absolutely shreds golfers who are not confident in putting ability. Spieth currently ranks 33rd in the world overall and has no feel for his putter this season. He's listed at 16/1 over golfers that have dominated him in the last 6 weeks. The media has played up his success at Augusta and his (2,1,2,11,3 finishes)...this is not the same guy. I will gladly take two guys playing at the top of their game who avoid mistakes and will make putts. They will both contend and stay within the top 15-20. Spieth scoring on Saturday & Sunday currently ranks 205th & 208th. Even if Spieth finds some magic on Thursday & Friday he hasn't proved he can put 4 rounds together.
Fade kid wonder this weekend and look for the Europeans to have a good showing. We'll pull for the good ole' boy Bubba but wouldn't be surprised to see a Rory / Fleetwood pairing on Sunday. Good luck to all and I'll try to keep everyone posted on add-ons. Expect we'll find some value on the front-runners at 12-15/1 by Friday night and finalize the card for the weekend.
BOL