The forecast for Friday has changed a little but there still definitely is going to be a Thurs morning edge that the Fri guys will not get back due to morning rain...I would call it 1.5 strokes BUT the Friday forecast looks volatile about how much rain will be and when. Never one to not take an edge, I am going to focus solely on guys with the optimal tee times (except to say Stenson is SUPER value for a high finish and Bradley is for a top 20 if they can fight through the morning rain Friday).
Thursday morning guys:
Sullivan 90-1 ideal opening tee time made 18-20 cuts this year..was good at
the burned out open in 2016 (albeit that was a birdie fest unlike this
week)..solid HTH play and worth a buck for a high finish...would target
HTH's against Lowry or Oleson...former is off form and latter is too wild to
succeed at Carnoustie IMO
Rose Its a good course for him but I never felt the British Open was his
game...he has NEVER matched his career high finish from when he was an
amateur...don't love the win odds but I do not like the setup for Dustin
J..so with the tee time edge I like that HTH at dog odds
Hatton...this is my secret squirrel but at 35-1, alot of people know....2
time winner at Dunhill Links which requires playing Carnoustie for 1
day...he is in great recent form but I am not feeling him in HTH's except
for targeted fades (see below)...I think the best move is a win bet or top
Englishmen..(not top euro tho because while I am comfortable against Rose, I
could see Stenson or Noren being formidable)
Fowler..very logical but not sure the lurking trouble at Carnoustie suits
him game...upside play only but alot to like
Pieters...hype train is not what it was 2 years ago, but 50-50 IMO to be a
future major winner..not a bad play in any wager at the 80's...
Cabrera-bello...beautiful controlled game for this type of test...very
consistent and reliable...very logical for HTH's or a top 10 gamble in the
70's..would LOVE him in a HTH against Knox...Knox is severely overbet...just
because he is from Scotland and is a short hitter doesn't mean he is any
good at British Open and he is not.
Grillo...last and longest odds guy I will talk about...good control & wind
game,very early tee time tomorrow AND a whopping 140-1...BIG value....Dufner
and Bradley are the only guys in that price range I would avoid in a HTH and
a top 10 bet is a good flyer...
Other guys with favorable tee times who are usable but I only have a lean on
are Kuchar, Mickelson, Casey, Rahm, Reed..would only seek them out if I
really wanted to fade somebody in a HTH...lastly guys under 60-1 that I
think are total fades are Spieth, Day, Sergio (yes he almost won here 11
years ago but his form is awful) and the aforementioned Knox...Day is a very
interesting value fade...not sure this is his game, he was god awful at
Shinecock.. PLUS he has been battling a sore back AND it will be cool all
week...(Day +275 to miss cut if you are so inclined to wager on trainwrecks)
Good Luck