A big fight weekend is on tap with Bellator bringing the circus into town in New York on Saturday before UFC heads to Oklahoma City Sunday for a free Fight Night card.
Most of my focus is on UFC, but if I find some value in Bellator cards, I have no problem making some plays. And since Bellator is making a rare foray into PPV, I figured I would get in on the action.
For those unfamiliar, Bellator technically has two cards Saturday: Bellator 180 (broadcast on Spike and headlined by a Phil Davis/Ryan Bader light heavyweight title contest) and Bellator NYC (the PPV portion headlined by Chael Sonnen and Wanderlei Silva). So essentially, Bellator 180 is the prelims to Bellator New York.
The card has a distinct Bellator flair as it is headlined by two men who absolutely should not be allowed to fight by any athletic body. Sonnen is a 40 year old who is 1-5 in his last six and just got tapped by an equally old Tito Ortiz in minutes. Silva is a punch drunk 40 year old who hasn't fought since 2013. Needless to say, I'm not interested in touching that one. So let's get to my limited picks. My UFC Fight Night picks will be out Friday.
Top Play
Matt Mitrione over Fedor Emelianenko at -130 (2.6 units to win 2)
Fedor is an absolute legend and still carries a certain aura when he walks into a cage. With that said, he is also a man who hasn't really fought since 2012. He had a fight in 2015 that was a freak show fight against Jaideep Singh and then he actually lost to Fabio Maldonado, but the Russian judges pulled a Russia and gave it to Fedor. He looked like a shell of himself. Despite a very impressive 36-4 record, he lost his last three fights on American soil (against real competition) by TKO or submission.
This fight is on American soil and it is against real competition. Matt Mitrione is by no means a spring chicken or an all time great, but he is still a solid heavyweight with real skills and maybe most importantly, a better athlete at this point. Mitrione fought three times in 2016, losing to a then top-10 Travis Browne but winning his other two by TKO under the Bellator banner. Showing he still possess KO power is enough for me to take him, but it's also that he can still take a shot. Even at 38, Mitrione has FAR less mileage on his chin than Fedor and has been in far less wars. He should still be able to withstand another legit scrap or two in his career, which is more than I can say for Fedor.
This line should be much closer to -200 for Mitrione, so I play it with confidence.
Other Play
Parlay: Lorenz Larkin/James Gallagher (1.6 units to win 2)
These guys are in two of the better fights of the night and should be entertaining. Lorenz Larkin makes his Bellator debut after a surprising departure from UFC. He gets his shot at the welterweight title right away in a match with Douglas Lima. Lima is a great fighter, but his biggest strength (explosive striking) is also Larkin's and Larkin is frankly more dynamic in that area. It should be a great fight, but I see Larkin finding Lima's chin and getting the stoppage win.
Gallagher is Bellator's own little Conor McGregor. Not really, but he is an Irish guy with charisma and some impressive finishing ability. Frankly, he is a prospect Bellator NEEDS to become a star and this is his official step-up fight. He is 6-0 with submission finishes in all but one, so now it is time to see if he can do it against a tricky veteran in Chinzo Machida, brother of former UFC champion Lyoto Machida.
Chinzo is patient like his brother and looks to set up KO blows from those karate positions just like his brother. I expect him to frustrate Gallagher early because of that, but Gallagher should just be too athletic for it to really matter. Gallagher gets the biggest win of his career and finishes Machida.
That's it for me. There are some other nice fights (Davis/Bader too close to call, Michael Chandler a blow out, the debut of uber prospect Aaron Pico) so enjoy the card. Let's hope Sonnen and Silva don't die in the cage.