The AFL lines are extremely volatile on game day. It’s not unusual to see a Side move 10 points, and a Total up to 15. For most games, I have wagers on both sides, and both the Over and Under. I won’t be posting selections, but rather my lines for each game. If anyone chooses, they can make wagers when the actual line strays from my posted numbers. Big windows for middles are generally available.
PHILADELPHIA SOUL-8.5 Tampa Bay Storm O/U 109 7pm:
Battle between the top two teams tonight in Philly. Soul were fortunate to win in Tampa, all the way back in week 2. In general, the league is much more competitive this season after the contraction to only 5 teams. While Philly is clearly the superior team in the league, TB has also been excellent going 7-1 thus far. Even with their combined 15-1 straight up records, both teams have been fortunate to win numerous close games. TB played horribly last week, and should have lost to the worst team in the AFL, the Washington Valor. They eked out an ugly 1 point victory at home, but QB Randy Hippeard played, by far, his worst game this season. Much of it probably had to do with him not practicing at all the prior two weeks, but his precise injury hasn't been disclosed. Hipp was listed as a full participant for all three practices this week, so that is encouraging for the Storm. I'd make Philly just under a TD favorite on a neutral field, so just over a TD at home looks like the right number. Double digit favorites are only 4-8 this season.
You almost have to put Philly down for 60 when playing at home. Even when they struggle a bit offensively, they still end up racking up the points. The Head Coach freely uses onsides kicks, and never wastes timeouts. Storm Head Coach Ron James also hangs onto his timeouts until the ends of halves, so there is always the chance of multiple onsides kicks at the end of the 2nd qrt, which could lead to 4-5 TDs in the final 2 minutes. TB can really control clock on offense with their short passing game, which could slow down pace, but with the top two QBs in the game, the Total has to be fairly high. Circumstances may determine where this one lands.