1 for 2 on posted NASCAR winners. I'm 4-0 on my matchup/top 5 bets in the last two races. The xfinity finish was awesome today, let's hope for the same on Sunday. Happy Father's day and good luck!
To WIN the Race: I like Kyle Larson here. It might not be the best payoff, but the kid is lights out this season. He has 6 top 2 finishes this year (best in cup series) He had his first win at Michigan last year. He showed great short run speed in practice which might pay off at the end on restarts. Larson was third fastest in practice with the best ten lap average (big stat that I follow). He is starting from the pole so will have clean air which has been king at these larger tracks. (WINNER)
Drivers for top 5's or use in matchup bets:
Kevin Harvick: he had a good 10 lap average speed late in his run. Being able to be fast on long runs is a big deal at these tracks. He has also finished in the top in 7 of the last 8 races at Michigan. He starts 11th. He might not be up front early, but Harvick is a closer and always finds his way to the front with 20 to go. (LOSER, late race contact forced pit stop)
Denny Hamlin: ran P2 in final practice (ten lap average). He is due and coming off a win in the Xfinity race on Saturday. I think he will run and finish well on Sunday. Don't have as much data to support this, but more of a "like what I see out of the 11" (WINNER, Finished 4th)
Drivers I'm avoiding or betting against:
Jimmie Johnson- Is awful at Michigan. It is his worst track statistically. Only 5 top 5's in 30 races. P9 in practice. Hendrick cars have been slower this weekend as a group. UPDATE: Team is going to a backup car, will start in the rear. Fade the 48 (FINISHED 10th)
Dale Earnhardt Jr- Everyone his hoping for some glorious return to victory lane (would be cool to see), but isn't going to happen on Sunday. Earnhardt Jr is starting 17th and was 14th in final practice. I don't think Hendrick has the speed to get inside the top 5 this weekend. Fuel mileage might be the only thing we see come into play that could change this. (FINISHED 9th)
Kyle Busch- I was all over him last weekend and then saw his crew chief choke. Same guy is on the box this weekend. This is also one of Busch's worst tracks. Hasn't had a top 10 finish in the last 7 races at Michigan. I think this team is snake bit with some bad luck. I don't see this being the weekend it turns around. (FINISHED 7th, should have run out of gas, but saved by cautions)
Note: I get most of my information from Jayski.com. A great resource for stats, .pdf practice times, and history. Good luck and enjoy the race.