(Using raw data format this week . . . will try to use the new Game Story format starting next week)
Chiefs @ Redskins +3 -- 1 p.m.
Alex Smith last 38 games as a starter: 29-8-1 SU
Andy Reid on road: 61% ATS in career (76-48 ATS)
3rd straight home game, after losing first two: 20-6-1 ATS
KC its last 3 games has yielded 103 points
Only 4 teams with a worse “Net Yards Per Play” than Kansas City
Washington rushes for the most raw yards per game in the league (5 yards per carry)
KC gains least yards per pass attempt in NFL.
Washington yields most yards per pass attempt in NFL
Vikings @ Ravens (-6.5) -- 1 p.m.
Baltimore 11-1 SU (9-3 ATS) under Harbaugh with greater than 7 days rest.
Teams that have played two straight overtime games: 19-19-1 ATS
(the tiredness effect seems to be accounted for)
Baltimore has covered 7 of 8 at home
Teams favored week after playing Mike Tomlin’s Steelers: 13-35 against the spread.
Ravens: 7 of last 9 games decided by 3-points or less
Only one team with a worse “yards per play” on offense than Baltimore
Minnesota giving up most points per game in the NFL
Browns @ Patriots (xxx) -- 1 p.m.
The SU winner of the last 24 Cleveland games has covered 22 times (spread has mattered only twice)
If opponent has lost 2 or more straight games, Patriots 33-13 ATS (in Tom Brady era)
Past 4 games, Brady completed 70% of passes (115 of 164)
4 games before that: completed only 52% of passes
New England has won 36 of 39 regular season home games (SU)
Patriots 6-19 ATS as a double digit favorite
Home team has covered 8 straight in Patriots games
Patriots at home in December: 28-2 SU
Last 2 games, Patriots trailed at halftime by a combined 34 points (won both games)
Per play basis: Pats in bottom half of league offensively
Browns best defense in NFL (per play)
Raiders @ Jets (-3)-- 1 p.m.
Jets 16-2 at home off a loss at home
Geno Smith: 8 touchdown passes; 25 turnovers on season
(the winner of the turnover battle covers 77% of NFL games)
Last 7 games for Smith: 1 touchdown and 11 interceptions
Jets as home favorite: 51-86 ATS
Last 25 seasons, Jets only the 22nd team to score 3 points or less in two straight games:
those teams the next game: 3-18 straight up
Such teams have NEVER covered the next game as a favorite
Last 3 weeks on offense:
Second least productive team gained 4.6 yards per play on offense.
Jets gained only 4.0 yards per play
Jets yield the least yards rushing per game (less than 3 yards per carry)
Early Line on this game (before last week’s games): Jets -4
Colts @ Bengals (-6.5) -- 1 p.m.
If Cincy had won two recent OT games, they would be 10-1 SU last 11
Road team in Bengals games has covered only 2 of last 14
Luck on road in career: 17 TD and 16 INTS
Colts in December: 10-2 ATS
Indy less than 2 hour drive to Cincy
Only 3 teams with a better “net yards per play” than Bengals (Seattle, Denver, Saints)
SNF: Panthers @ Saints (-3) – 8:30 p.m.
Only 4th time in last four seasons under Coach Payton that Saints are not more than a FG favorite at home.
Panthers have covered 7 of 8
Panthers have covered 7 straight as a road dog (winning last 5 straight-up)
Saints 12-1 ATS at home after a loss on the road (since September 2008)
Cam Newton in one-score games: 5-14 SU in career (won last 3)
Saints have covered 15 of 20 regular season games under Payton
Teams off Seattle game: 17-37-4 (31%) the next week (last 4 seasons)
Teams favored the week after playing the Seahawks: 4-18 ATS last 22
Last 15 games under Coach Payton at home
Saints have NOT lost even once against the spread
Saints have won and covered 9 straight primetime home games.
Coach Payton off a loss: 16-4 ATS streak
Panthers covered 10 of 12 in New Orleans
Carolina has not given up more than 24 points this season
Early Line on this game (before last week’s games): Saints -4.5
Lions @ Eagles (-3) -- 1 p.m.
Eagles 2-17 ATS when favored for a second straight week
Quarterback Foles is red-hot: 19 TDs and zero INTs
Philly also doing it with defense: holding 8 straight opponents to 21 points or less
Eagles: covered only 4 of last 25 home games
Visitor in Eagles games: 15-3 ATS run
Lions on the road (starting in 2006): 23-38-2
Lions after scoring 30 points or more last week, have lost 11 straight ATS
Philly has been home since November 11
Only Denver has a better offensive “Yards Per Play” than Philly
Philly defense yields the most yards passing per game in the NFL
Dolphins @ Steelers (-3) -- 1 p.m.
Road team in Miami games 55-36 ATS
Steelers have lost 13 of 14 games ATS when FAVORED the week BEFORE playing Cincinnati
Dolphins have lost 13 straight games after playing Jets – 2005 was the last time they won a game after playing the Jets!
Steelers down to third string center.
Bills @ Buccaneers (-2.5) -- 1 p.m.
True home team in Bills games: 12-1 ATS
Bills last 37 games: lost against the spread by a NET 141 points combined
Titans @ Broncos (-12) -- 4:05 p.m.
24th straight game Denver is favored
Titans 5-1 on the road this season
Bookmaker Bob Scucci says he downgrades Peyton Manning up to 2.5 points in bad weather.
Denver ATS at home (25-38) since 2006
And Tennessee is BAD when overmatched on the road:
as an away underdog of 5 or more,
the Titans have covered only 5 of 18 ATS
Any road underdog off a road loss: 64% ATS since 2003
Home teams has covered only 2 of last 12 Titans games
Third straight road game for Titans
(NFL teams playing 3rd straight road game have covered 8 of last 9)
Strong Tennessee pass TD: yielded only 8 TD passes (with 10 INTS) on the season
Denver scores 10 points more per game than the 2nd highest scoring team in the league
Rams @ Cardinals (-6.5) -- 4:25 p.m.
Only 4th time in last four seasons Arizona is favored by more than 6 points.
Cards (7-4 SU last 11 games): losing only: at SF, at Saints, at Philly, vs. Seattle
Arizona has improved in the Vegas Power Rankings the most of any team since start of the season
Jeff Fisher as a underdog: 89-59 ATS (60%) in his coaching career
Any road underdog off a road loss: 64% ATS since 2003
Only 3 teams with a better “net yards per play” than Arizona (Seattle, Denver, Saints)
Giants @ Chargers (-3) -- 4:25 p.m.
Giants on road under Caughlin: 53-32 ATS (62%)
Giants on road off a road win: 18-3 ATS
Chargers: Worst defense in league (yards per play)
Seahawks @ 49ers (-3) -- 4:25 p.m.
First time Seattle is an underdog this season
Pete Carroll has been VERY strong anytime getting points:
cover 15 of last 18 as an underdog.
The week AFTER playing the Saints, teams are 48-82 ATS (37% since 2005)
49ers at home under Harbaugh are 19-6-1 ATS
Seattle (starting in 2005): 69% ATS at home (51-23-1)
On road during same period: 40% (30-45-1)
If simply play on at home, against on road: 96-53-2 (64% winners)
Seattle: 19-7 ATS overall last 26
Seattle 14-2 ATS vs. teams with a winning record.
Coach Harbaugh 10-0-1 ATS vs. teams with a win percentage better than .700!
First Vegas line on this game (released by Cantor in May):
SF -2.5 (implying either than Seattle as underperformed or SF has over performed???)
Falcons @ Packers (xxx) -- 1 p.m.
December home games since 1992
Packers 30-13-2 ATS
Packers overall in December: 20-9 ATS
Packers have lost 5 straight ATS since Rodgers was hurt (losing to the spread by a combined 69 points)
Packers defense has yielded 22 TD passes with only 6 interceptions
Packers have allowed 26 point or more every game since Rodgers was hurt
MNF: Cowboys @ Bears (pk) -- 8:40 p.m.
Dallas 1-13 ATS as a favorite after a win (if Dallas becomes a favorite in game)
Bears defense has yielded 205 yards rushing per game (last 6 games)
Dallas has been outgained by over 1000 yards on the season
Late in the season is not the time to back the Cowboys.
Since 2005, Dallas has covered only 30% of games in December (10-23-1)
(with NOT A SINGLE winning December against the spread in all those years)
Dallas 1-7 ATS on MNF
Dallas 1-10 ATS favored on MNF
Bears 6th best offense
Bears 28th best defense
Only 2 teams with a worse Net Yards Per play than Dallas
Dallas defense yields the most yards per game in the league.